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Who’s ahead in the Virginia governor’s race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

Aug. 1, 2021Sept. 1Oct. 1Nov. 130405060%Youngkin 47.9%McAuliffe 47.0%Election DayNov. 2, 2021Nov. 2, 2021 leaderNov. 2, 2021 leaderYoungkinYoungkin+1.0

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

SAMPLE TYPES:

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

DatesSamplePollsterResultNet result
Dates
Sample
PollsterResult

Governor, Virginia, 2021, General election
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2021
450LV
Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2021
450LV
McAuliffe
47%
McAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

48%

Blanding

2%
48%
YoungkinYoungkin+1
Oct. 26-Nov. 1, 2021
747LV
Oct. 26-Nov. 1, 2021
747LV
McAuliffe
50%
McAuliffe
50%

McAuliffe

50%

Youngkin

47%
47%
Youngkin  McAuliffe+3
Oct. 29-31, 2021
1,081LV
Oct. 29-31, 2021
1,081LV
McAuliffe
47%
McAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

49%
49%
Youngkin  Youngkin+2
Oct. 27-30, 2021
500LV
Oct. 27-30, 2021
500LV
McAuliffe
45%
McAuliffe
45%

McAuliffe

45%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

2%
47%
YoungkinYoungkin+2
Oct. 27-29, 2021
611LV
Oct. 27-29, 2021
611LV
McAuliffe
46%
McAuliffe
46%

McAuliffe

46%

Youngkin

49%

Blanding

2%
49%
YoungkinYoungkin+3
Oct. 14-28, 2021
571LV
Oct. 14-28, 2021
571LV
McAuliffe
48%
McAuliffe
48%

McAuliffe

48%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

1%
47%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+1

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Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

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