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Who’s ahead in the California governor ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

Oct. 1, 2022Nov. 1304050607080%Newsom 59.6%Dahle 38.7%Election DayNov. 8, 2022Nov. 8, 2022 leaderNov. 8, 2022 leaderNewsomNewsom+20.8

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

SAMPLE TYPES:

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

DatesSamplePollsterResultNet result
Dates
Sample
PollsterResult

Governor, California, 2022, General election
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Nov. 4-6, 2022
450LV
Nov. 4-6, 2022
450LV
Newsom
60%
Newsom
60%

Newsom

60%

Dahle

40%
40%
Dahle  Newsom+20
Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2022
802RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2022
802RV
Newsom
62%
Newsom
62%

Newsom

62%

Dahle

38%
38%
Dahle  Newsom+24
Oct. 25-31, 2022
5,972LV
Oct. 25-31, 2022
5,972LV
Newsom
58%
Newsom
58%

Newsom

58%

Dahle

37%
37%
Dahle  Newsom+21
July 29-Oct. 27, 2022
200LV
July 29-Oct. 27, 2022
200LV
Newsom
61%
Newsom
61%

Newsom

61%

Dahle

39%
39%
Dahle  Newsom+22
Oct. 11-26, 2022
860LV
Oct. 11-26, 2022
860LV
Newsom
56%
Newsom
56%

Newsom

56%

Dahle

37%
37%
Dahle  Newsom+19

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Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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