UPDATED Sep. 27, 2022, at 8:10 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Arizona governor race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 24, 2022

Sept. 18, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

768LV
Sep.15-19
768LV
Hobbs
47%
Hobbs
47%

Hobbs

47%

Lake

51%
51%
Lake  Lake+4

Sept. 16, 2022

Sept. 14, 2022

Sept. 8, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

563LV
Sep.6-9
563LV
Hobbs
53%
Hobbs
53%

Hobbs

53%

Lake

39%
39%
Lake  Hobbs+14
972RV
Sep.6-9
972RV
Hobbs
49%
Hobbs
49%

Hobbs

49%

Lake

37%
37%
Lake  Hobbs+12
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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