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Who’s ahead in the Arizona governor race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 6, 2022

Nov. 5, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Hobbs
49%
Hobbs
49%

Hobbs

49%

Lake

51%
51%
Lake  Lake+2
550LV
Nov.4-6
550LV
Hobbs
47%
Hobbs
47%

Hobbs

47%

Lake

50%
50%
Lake  Lake+3
560LV
Nov.2-6
560LV
Hobbs
48%
Hobbs
48%

Hobbs

48%

Lake

50%
50%
Lake  Lake+2
809RV
Nov.2-6
809RV
Hobbs
45%
Hobbs
45%

Hobbs

45%

Lake

45%
45%
Lake  Even
1,359LV
Nov.2-6
1,359LV
Hobbs
48%
Hobbs
48%

Hobbs

48%

Lake

52%
52%
Lake  Lake+4

Nov. 2, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

501LV
Nov.2-3
501LV
Hobbs
45%
Hobbs
45%

Hobbs

45%

Lake

49%
49%
Lake  Lake+4

Nov. 1, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

550LV
Nov.2
550LV
Hobbs
48%
Hobbs
48%

Hobbs

48%

Lake

51%
51%
Lake  Lake+3
1,075LV
Nov.1-2
1,075LV
Hobbs
46%
Hobbs
46%

Hobbs

46%

Lake

49%
49%
Lake  Lake+3
500LV
Nov.1-2
500LV
Hobbs
45%
Hobbs
45%

Hobbs

45%

Lake

47%
47%
Lake  Lake+1
1,157RV
Oct.31-Nov.2
1,157RV
Hobbs
48%
Hobbs
48%

Hobbs

48%

Lake

47%
47%
Lake  Hobbs+1
852LV
Oct.29-Nov.2
852LV
Hobbs
48%
Hobbs
48%

Hobbs

48%

Lake

50%
50%
Lake  Lake+2

Oct. 31, 2022

Governor, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,000LV
Oct.30-Nov.1
1,000LV
Hobbs
47%
Hobbs
47%

Hobbs

47%

Lake

50%
50%
Lake  Lake+4
639LV
Oct.30-Nov.1
639LV
Hobbs
46%
Hobbs
46%

Hobbs

46%

Lake

50%
50%
Lake  Lake+4
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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