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Who’s ahead in the California governor race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 5, 2022

Governor, California, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Newsom
60%
Newsom
60%

Newsom

60%

Dahle

40%
40%
Dahle  Newsom+20

Nov. 1, 2022

Oct. 30, 2022

Oct. 26, 2022

Governor, California, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

200LV
Jul.29-Oct.27
200LV
Newsom
61%
Newsom
61%

Newsom

61%

Dahle

39%
39%
Dahle  Newsom+22

Oct. 25, 2022

Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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