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Who’s ahead in the Montana 1st District House ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. House, MT-1, 2022, General election

Oct. 3-14
143A
Oct. 3-14
143A
Tranel
32%
Tranel
32%

Tranel

32%

Zinke

34%

Lamb

12%
34%
ZinkeZinke+2
Sept. 27-Oct. 1
840LV
Sept. 27-Oct. 1
840LV
Tranel
40%
Tranel
40%

Tranel

40%

Zinke

41%

Lamb

8%
41%
ZinkeZinke+1
Sept. 14-19
400LV
Sept. 14-19
400LV
Tranel
43%
Tranel
43%

Tranel

43%

Zinke

45%

Lamb

3%
45%
ZinkeZinke+2
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