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Who’s ahead in the Montana House ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

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DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 16, 2024

U.S. House, MT-1, 2024, General election

Oct. 14-17
500LV
Oct. 14-17
500LV
Tranel
45%
Tranel
45%

Tranel

45%

Zinke

46%

Hayes

4%
46%
ZinkeZinke+1

Oct. 15, 2024

U.S. House, MT-1, 2024, General election

Oct. 13-16
400LV
Oct. 13-16
400LV
Tranel
44%
Tranel
44%

Tranel

44%

Zinke

52%
52%
Zinke  Zinke+8
Sept. 30-Oct. 16
326A
Sept. 30-Oct. 16
326A
Tranel
37%
Tranel
37%

Tranel

37%

Zinke

44%

Hayes

4%
44%
ZinkeZinke+7

U.S. House, MT-2, 2024, General election

Sept. 30-Oct. 16
402A
Sept. 30-Oct. 16
402A
Driscoll
26%
Driscoll
26%

Driscoll

26%

Downing

43%

Metzger

4%

Neill

3%
43%
DowningDowning+17

Sept. 13, 2024

U.S. House, MT-1, 2024, General election

Sept. 11-14
432LV
Sept. 11-14
432LV
Tranel
44%
Tranel
44%

Tranel

44%

Zinke

49%
49%
Zinke  Zinke+5
Sept. 11-14
432LV
Sept. 11-14
432LV
Tranel
43%
Tranel
43%

Tranel

43%

Zinke

47%

Hayes

3%
47%
ZinkeZinke+4

Sept. 12, 2024

Aug. 28, 2024

U.S. House, MT-1, 2024, General election

Aug. 26-29
500LV
Aug. 26-29
500LV
Tranel
44%
Tranel
44%

Tranel

44%

Zinke

46%

Hayes

4%
46%
ZinkeZinke+2
Aug. 25-29
310LV
Aug. 25-29
310LV
Tranel
43%
Tranel
43%

Tranel

43%

Zinke

49%
49%
Zinke  Zinke+6

U.S. House, MT-2, 2024, General election

Aug. 25-29
290LV
Aug. 25-29
290LV
Driscoll
31%
Driscoll
31%

Driscoll

31%

Downing

52%
52%
Downing  Downing+21
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Candidate is an incumbent

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