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Who’s ahead in the Arizona 1st District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Aug. 17, 2022

U.S. House, AZ-1, 2022

500LV
Aug.15-18
500LV
Hodge
47%
Hodge
47%

Hodge

47%

Schweikert

47%
47%
Schweikert  Even

Oct. 31, 2018

U.S. House, AZ-1, 2018

756LV
Oct.31-Nov.1
756LV
O'Halleran
48%
O'Halleran
48%

O'Halleran

48%

Rogers

45%
45%
Rogers  O'Halleran+2

Oct. 17, 2018

U.S. House, AZ-1, 2018

400LV
Oct.16-18
400LV
O'Halleran
46%
O'Halleran
46%

O'Halleran

46%

Rogers

46%
46%
Rogers  Even

Oct. 9, 2018

U.S. House, AZ-1, 2018

943LV
Oct.9-10
943LV
O'Halleran
38%
O'Halleran
38%

O'Halleran

38%

Rogers

44%
44%
Rogers  Rogers+7

Sept. 27, 2018

U.S. House, AZ-1, 2018

738LV
Sep.27-28
738LV
O'Halleran
36%
O'Halleran
36%

O'Halleran

36%

Rogers

39%
39%
Rogers  Rogers+3
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