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Who’s ahead in the California House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

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VOTERS

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LIKELY VOTERS

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 30, 2022

Oct. 5, 2022

U.S. House, CA-27, 2022

400LV
Oct.3-6
400LV
Smith
47%
Smith
47%

Smith

47%

Garcia

41%
41%
Garcia  Smith+6

Oct. 2, 2022

U.S. House, CA-41, 2022

600LV
Sep.28-Oct.3
600LV
Rollins
44%
Rollins
44%

Rollins

44%

Calvert

47%
47%
Calvert  Calvert+3

Sept. 17, 2022

U.S. House, CA-26, 2022

400LV
Sep.13-18
400LV
Brownley
48%
Brownley
48%

Brownley

48%

Jacobs

43%
43%
Jacobs  Brownley+5

Aug. 29, 2022

U.S. House, CA-27, 2022

600LV
Aug.25-30
600LV
Smith
44%
Smith
44%

Smith

44%

Garcia

42%
42%
Garcia  Smith+2
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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