UPDATED Sep. 28, 2022, at 2:05 PM

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Who’s ahead in the California 21st District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 9, 2020

U.S. House, CA-21, 2020

400LV
Sep.8-10
400LV
Cox
38%
Cox
38%

Cox

38%

Valadao

49%
49%
Valadao  Valadao+11

July 1, 2019

U.S. House, CA-21, 2020

400LV
Jun.30-Jul.2
400LV
Cox
36%
Cox
36%

Cox

36%

Valadao

52%
52%
Valadao  Valadao+16

Sept. 23, 2018

U.S. House, CA-21, 2018

555LV
Sep.20-24
555LV
Cox
39%
Cox
39%

Cox

39%

Valadao

50%
50%
Valadao  Valadao+11
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Candidate is an incumbent

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