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Who’s ahead in the California 25th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 5, 2020

U.S. House, CA-25, 2020

644LV
Oct.3-6
644LV
Smith
49%
Smith
49%

Smith

49%

Garcia

47%
47%
Garcia  Smith+2

Sept. 22, 2020

U.S. House, CA-25, 2020

400LV
Sep.21-23
400LV
Smith
51%
Smith
51%

Smith

51%

Garcia

45%
45%
Garcia  Smith+6

Aug. 29, 2020

U.S. House, CA-25, 2020

400LV
Aug.26-30
400LV
Smith
45%
Smith
45%

Smith

45%

Garcia

46%
46%
Garcia  Garcia+1

July 27, 2020

U.S. House, CA-25, 2020

400LV
Jul.26-28
400LV
Smith
41%
Smith
41%

Smith

41%

Garcia

48%
48%
Garcia  Garcia+7

May 9, 2020

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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