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Who’s ahead in the Minnesota 3 House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. House, MN-3, 2018

607LV
Sep.24-29
607LV
Phillips
49%
Phillips
49%

Phillips

49%

Paulsen

44%
44%
Paulsen  Phillips+5
538V
Sep.17-18
538V
Phillips
52%
Phillips
52%

Phillips

52%

Paulsen

39%
39%
Paulsen  Phillips+13
500RV
Sep.7-9
500RV
Phillips
50%
Phillips
50%

Phillips

50%

Paulsen

40%
40%
Paulsen  Phillips+10
500LV
Sep.7-9
500LV
Phillips
51%
Phillips
51%

Phillips

51%

Paulsen

42%
42%
Paulsen  Phillips+9
664V
Feb.12-13
664V
Phillips
46%
Phillips
46%

Phillips

46%

Paulsen

43%
43%
Paulsen  Phillips+3
542V
Nov.9-10
542V
Phillips
46%
Phillips
46%

Phillips

46%

Paulsen

42%
42%
Paulsen  Phillips+4
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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