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Who’s ahead in the New Mexico House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 27, 2022

U.S. House, NM-3, 2022

326LV
Oct.25-28
326LV
Fernandez
58%
Fernandez
58%

Fernandez

58%

Johnson

40%
40%
Johnson  Fernandez+18

U.S. House, NM-1, 2022

372LV
Oct.25-28
372LV
Stansbury
54%
Stansbury
54%

Stansbury

54%

Garcia Holmes

43%
43%
Garcia Holmes  Stansbury+11

U.S. House, NM-2, 2022

302LV
Oct.25-28
302LV
Vasquez
44%
Vasquez
44%

Vasquez

44%

Herrell

54%
54%
Herrell  Herrell+11

Oct. 26, 2022

U.S. House, NM-3, 2022

434LV
Oct.20-27
434LV
Fernandez
53%
Fernandez
53%

Fernandez

53%

Johnson

35%
35%
Johnson  Fernandez+18

U.S. House, NM-2, 2022

410LV
Oct.20-27
410LV
Vasquez
47%
Vasquez
47%

Vasquez

47%

Herrell

45%
45%
Herrell  Vasquez+2

U.S. House, NM-1, 2022

410LV
Oct.20-27
410LV
Stansbury
48%
Stansbury
48%

Stansbury

48%

Garcia Holmes

42%
42%
Garcia Holmes  Stansbury+6

Oct. 23, 2022

U.S. House, NM-2, 2022

398LV
Oct.20-24
398LV
Vasquez
48%
Vasquez
48%

Vasquez

48%

Herrell

47%
47%
Herrell  Vasquez+1

Sept. 25, 2022

U.S. House, NM-2, 2022

500LV
Sep.20-26
500LV
Vasquez
45%
Vasquez
45%

Vasquez

45%

Herrell

43%
43%
Herrell  Vasquez+2

July 24, 2022

U.S. House, NM-2, 2022

500LV
Jul.19-25
500LV
Vasquez
45%
Vasquez
45%

Vasquez

45%

Herrell

44%
44%
Herrell  Vasquez+1
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