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Who’s ahead in the New Mexico 1st District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 27, 2022

U.S. House, NM-1, 2022

372LV
Oct.25-28
372LV
Stansbury
54%
Stansbury
54%

Stansbury

54%

Garcia Holmes

43%
43%
Garcia Holmes  Stansbury+11

Oct. 26, 2022

U.S. House, NM-1, 2022

410LV
Oct.20-27
410LV
Stansbury
48%
Stansbury
48%

Stansbury

48%

Garcia Holmes

42%
42%
Garcia Holmes  Stansbury+6

May 20, 2021

U.S. House, NM-1, 2021

555LV
May 18-21
555LV
Stansbury
49%
Stansbury
49%

Stansbury

49%

Moores

33%

Dunn

5%

Manning

3%
33%
MooresStansbury+16

Oct. 28, 2020

U.S. House, NM-1, 2020

430LV
Oct.23-29
430LV
Haaland
58%
Haaland
58%

Haaland

58%

Garcia Holmes

37%
37%
Garcia Holmes  Haaland+21

Sept. 1, 2020

U.S. House, NM-1, 2020

418LV
Aug.26-Sep.2
418LV
Haaland
58%
Haaland
58%

Haaland

58%

Garcia Holmes

31%
31%
Garcia Holmes  Haaland+27
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