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Who’s ahead in the New Mexico 3rd District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 27, 2022

U.S. House, NM-3, 2022

326LV
Oct.25-28
326LV
Fernandez
58%
Fernandez
58%

Fernandez

58%

Johnson

40%
40%
Johnson  Fernandez+18

Oct. 26, 2022

U.S. House, NM-3, 2022

434LV
Oct.20-27
434LV
Fernandez
53%
Fernandez
53%

Fernandez

53%

Johnson

35%
35%
Johnson  Fernandez+18

Oct. 28, 2020

U.S. House, NM-3, 2020

347LV
Oct.23-29
347LV
Fernandez
58%
Fernandez
58%

Fernandez

58%

Johnson

35%
35%
Johnson  Fernandez+23

Sept. 1, 2020

U.S. House, NM-3, 2020

301LV
Aug.26-Sep.2
301LV
Fernandez
50%
Fernandez
50%

Fernandez

50%

Johnson

35%
35%
Johnson  Fernandez+15

Oct. 28, 2018

U.S. House, NM-3, 2018

410LV
Oct.29
410LV
Lujan
57%
Lujan
57%

Lujan

57%

McFall

33%

Manning

4%
33%
McFallLujan+25
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Candidate is an incumbent

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