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Who’s ahead in the New York 19th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 31, 2022

U.S. House, NY-19, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

455LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
455LV
Riley
48%
Riley
48%

Riley

48%

Molinaro

43%
43%
Molinaro  Riley+5

Sept. 27, 2022

U.S. House, NY-19, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

470LV
Sep.25-28
470LV
Riley
46%
Riley
46%

Riley

46%

Molinaro

41%
41%
Molinaro  Riley+5

Sept. 21, 2022

U.S. House, NY-19, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

652LV
Sep.20-22
652LV
Riley
42%
Riley
42%

Riley

42%

Molinaro

51%
51%
Molinaro  Molinaro+10

Sept. 1, 2022

U.S. House, NY-19, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

400LV
Aug.27-Sep.2
400LV
Riley
44%
Riley
44%

Riley

44%

Molinaro

41%
41%
Molinaro  Riley+3

Aug. 31, 2022

U.S. House, NY-19, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

403LV
Aug.29-Sep.1
403LV
Riley
47%
Riley
47%

Riley

47%

Molinaro

44%
44%
Molinaro  Riley+3
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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