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Who’s ahead in the Ohio 12th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 14, 2020

U.S. House, OH-12, 2020

818RV
Oct.14-15
818RV
Shearer
44%
Shearer
44%

Shearer

44%

Balderson

48%
48%
Balderson  Balderson+4

Oct. 21, 2018

U.S. House, OH-12, 2018

570LV
Oct.20-22
570LV
O'Connor
47%
O'Connor
47%

O'Connor

47%

Balderson

47%

Manchik

4%
47%
BaldersonEven

Oct. 12, 2018

U.S. House, OH-12, 2018

639LV
Oct.11-13
639LV
O'Connor
46%
O'Connor
46%

O'Connor

46%

Balderson

48%
48%
Balderson  Balderson+2

Sept. 5, 2018

U.S. House, OH-12, 2018

500LV
Sep.4-6
500LV
O'Connor
46%
O'Connor
46%

O'Connor

46%

Balderson

47%

Manchik

5%
47%
BaldersonBalderson+1

Aug. 3, 2018

U.S. House, OH-12, 2018

431LV
Aug.2-4
431LV
O'Connor
47%
O'Connor
47%

O'Connor

47%

Balderson

46%
46%
Balderson  O'Connor+1
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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