UPDATED Sep. 27, 2022, at 8:10 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania 1st District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 7, 2022

U.S. House, PA-1, 2022

400RV
Sep.5-8
400RV
Ehasz
35%
Ehasz
35%

Ehasz

35%

Fitzpatrick

55%
55%
Fitzpatrick  Fitzpatrick+20

July 28, 2022

U.S. House, PA-1, 2022

400LV
Jul.22-29
400LV
Ehasz
35%
Ehasz
35%

Ehasz

35%

Fitzpatrick

42%
42%
Fitzpatrick  Fitzpatrick+7

June 24, 2022

U.S. House, PA-1, 2022

626LV
Jun.24-25
626LV
Ehasz
38%
Ehasz
38%

Ehasz

38%

Fitzpatrick

45%
45%
Fitzpatrick  Fitzpatrick+7

Oct. 6, 2020

U.S. House, PA-1, 2020

569V
Oct.6-7
569V
Finello
47%
Finello
47%

Finello

47%

Fitzpatrick

46%
46%
Fitzpatrick  Finello+1

Oct. 3, 2020

U.S. House, PA-1, 2020

400LV
Oct.1-4
400LV
Finello
45%
Finello
45%

Finello

45%

Fitzpatrick

47%
47%
Fitzpatrick  Fitzpatrick+2
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Candidate is an incumbent

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