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Who’s ahead in the Vermont House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Oct. 25, 2022

U.S. House, VT-1, 2022

1,039LV
Oct.21-26
1,039LV
Balint
54%
Balint
54%

Balint

54%

Madden

29%

Redic

5%

Druzba

1%

Ortiz

1%

Talbot

1%
29%
MaddenBalint+25

Oct. 2, 2022

U.S. House, VT-1, 2022

765LV
Sep.29-Oct.3
765LV
Balint
57%
Balint
57%

Balint

57%

Madden

19%

Redic

9%

Talbot

1%

Ortiz

0%

Druzba

0%
19%
MaddenBalint+38

April 17, 2022

U.S. House, VT-1, 2022

583LV
Apr.14-18
583LV
Clifford
42%
Clifford
42%

Clifford

42%

Horne

25%
25%
Horne  Clifford+17
583LV
Apr.14-18
583LV
Ram Hinsdale
47%
Ram Hinsdale
47%

Ram Hinsdale

47%

Horne

26%
26%
Horne  Ram Hinsdale+21
583LV
Apr.14-18
583LV
Gray
49%
Gray
49%

Gray

49%

Horne

27%
27%
Horne  Gray+22
583LV
Apr.14-18
583LV
Balint
48%
Balint
48%

Balint

48%

Horne

25%
25%
Horne  Balint+23

Sept. 14, 2020

U.S. House, VT-1, 2020

586LV
Sep.3-15
586LV
Welch
57%
Welch
57%

Welch

57%

Berry

18%

Becker

2%

Horne

1%

Helali

1%

Orr

0%

Trudell

0%
18%
BerryWelch+39

Oct. 31, 2018

U.S. House, VT-1, 2018

885LV
Oct.30-Nov.1
885LV
Welch
66%
Welch
66%

Welch

66%

Tynio

28%
28%
Tynio  Welch+38
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