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Who’s ahead in the Virginia House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 1, 2022

U.S. House, VA-7, 2022

525LV
Oct.30-Nov.2
525LV
Spanberger
47%
Spanberger
47%

Spanberger

47%

Vega

47%
47%
Vega  Even

Oct. 17, 2022

U.S. House, VA-2, 2022

820LV
Oct.12-18
820LV
Luria
45%
Luria
45%

Luria

45%

Kiggans

45%
45%
Kiggans  Even

Oct. 12, 2022

U.S. House, VA-10, 2022

400LV
Oct.11-13
400LV
Wexton
43%
Wexton
43%

Wexton

43%

Cao

41%
41%
Cao  Wexton+2

Aug. 5, 2022

U.S. House, VA-7, 2022

400LV
Jul.31-Aug.6
400LV
Spanberger
46%
Spanberger
46%

Spanberger

46%

Vega

41%
41%
Vega  Spanberger+5

April 14, 2022

U.S. House, VA-2, 2022

600RV
Apr.10-15
600RV
Luria
39%
Luria
39%

Luria

39%

Kiggans

34%
34%
Kiggans  Luria+5
600RV
Apr.10-15
600RV
Luria
38%
Luria
38%

Luria

38%

Bell

33%
33%
Bell  Luria+5
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