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Who’s ahead in the Wisconsin 1st District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending July 7, 2020

U.S. House, WI-1, 2020

1,007V
Jul.7-8
1,007V
Polack
39%
Polack
39%

Polack

39%

Steil

49%
49%
Steil  Steil+10

Oct. 20, 2018

U.S. House, WI-1, 2018

551LV
Oct.19-21
551LV
Bryce
45%
Bryce
45%

Bryce

45%

Steil

44%
44%
Steil  Bryce+1

Oct. 4, 2018

U.S. House, WI-1, 2018

501LV
Oct.4-5
501LV
Bryce
44%
Bryce
44%

Bryce

44%

Steil

46%

Yorgan

7%
46%
SteilSteil+3

Sept. 12, 2018

U.S. House, WI-1, 2018

500RV
Sep.11-13
500RV
Bryce
41%
Bryce
41%

Bryce

41%

Steil

49%
49%
Steil  Steil+8
500LV
Sep.11-13
500LV
Bryce
44%
Bryce
44%

Bryce

44%

Steil

50%
50%
Steil  Steil+6

Sept. 7, 2018

U.S. House, WI-1, 2018

400LV
Sep.4-8
400LV
Bryce
45%
Bryce
45%

Bryce

45%

Steil

45%
45%
Steil  Even
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