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Who’s ahead in the Minnesota race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending May 9, 2022

Jan. 29, 2022

Dec. 5, 2021

Nov. 1, 2020

President: general election, Minnesota, 2020
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

3,031LV
Oct.20-Nov.2
3,031LV
Biden
56%
Biden
56%

Biden

56%

Trump

41%
41%
Trump  Biden+15
3,031RV
Oct.20-Nov.2
3,031RV
Biden
55%
Biden
55%

Biden

55%

Trump

42%
42%
Trump  Biden+13

Oct. 31, 2020

President: general election, Minnesota, 2020
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Oct.31-Nov.1
450LV
Biden
52%
Biden
52%

Biden

52%

Trump

43%
43%
Trump  Biden+9
1,259LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
1,259LV
Biden
51%
Biden
51%

Biden

51%

Trump

43%

Jorgensen

4%

Hawkins

2%
43%
TrumpBiden+8
466LV
Oct.23-Nov.1
466LV
Biden
53%
Biden
53%

Biden

53%

Trump

43%

Jorgensen

4%

Hawkins

0%
43%
TrumpBiden+9

U.S. Senate, Minnesota, 2020

450LV
Oct.31-Nov.1
450LV
Smith
50%
Smith
50%

Smith

50%

Lewis

39%
39%
Lewis  Smith+11
1,259LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
1,259LV
Smith
54%
Smith
54%

Smith

54%

Lewis

44%
44%
Lewis  Smith+10
430LV
Oct.23-Nov.1
430LV
Smith
55%
Smith
55%

Smith

55%

Lewis

46%
46%
Lewis  Smith+9
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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