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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Dec. 22, 2024

President: general election, 2028

Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Whitmer
33%
Whitmer
33%

Whitmer

33%

Vance

40%
40%
Vance  Vance+7
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Shapiro
34%
Shapiro
34%

Shapiro

34%

Vance

37%
37%
Vance  Vance+3
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Harris
43%
Harris
43%

Harris

43%

Vance

41%
41%
Vance  Harris+2
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Dec. 23, 2024
656RV
Newsom
34%
Newsom
34%

Newsom

34%

Vance

37%
37%
Vance  Vance+3

Dec. 19, 2024

President: general election, 2028

Dec. 17-20, 2024
661LV
Dec. 17-20, 2024
661LV
Harris
47%
Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Vance

46%
46%
Vance  Harris+1

Dec. 15, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Dec. 11-16, 2024
428LV
Dec. 11-16, 2024
428LV
Harris
35%
Harris
35%

Harris

35%

Buttigieg

12%

Newsom

7%

Shapiro

5%

Walz

5%

Ocasio-Cortez

3%

Pritzker

3%

Whitmer

3%

O'Rourke

3%

Booker

2%

Klobuchar

1%

Moore

1%

Murphy

1%

Patrick

1%

Polis

0%
12%
ButtigiegHarris+23

President: Republican primary, 2028

Dec. 11-16, 2024
463LV
Dec. 11-16, 2024
463LV
Vance
25%
Vance
25%

Vance

25%

Trump Jr.

21%

DeSantis

9%

Haley

4%

Ramaswamy

4%

T. Scott

3%

Gabbard

2%

Youngkin

2%

Sanders

2%

Rubio

2%

Noem

1%

Cotton

1%

Abbott

1%

R. Scott

1%

Stefanik

0%

Hogan

0%
21%
Trump Jr.Vance+4

Dec. 7, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

Dec. 6-8, 2024
994RV
Dec. 6-8, 2024
994RV
Trump Jr.
30%
Trump Jr.
30%

Trump Jr.

30%

Vance

30%

DeSantis

9%

Haley

6%

Ramaswamy

5%

Kennedy

5%

Sanders

1%

Rubio

1%

Carlson

1%

Abbott

1%

Kemp

1%

Youngkin

1%
30%
VanceEven

Nov. 21, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Nov. 20-22, 2024
400A
Nov. 20-22, 2024
400A
Harris
37%
Harris
37%

Harris

37%

Newsom

7%

Buttigieg

4%

Whitmer

3%

Shapiro

3%

Obama

2%

Sanders

2%

Walz

1%

Ocasio-Cortez

1%

Jeffries

1%

Moore

1%

Pritzker

1%

Leibowitz

1%

Tlaib

1%

Beshear

0%

Kelly

0%
7%
NewsomHarris+30

President: Republican primary, 2028

Nov. 20-22, 2024
420A
Nov. 20-22, 2024
420A
Vance
30%
Vance
30%

Vance

30%

Trump

23%

DeSantis

5%

Ramaswamy

3%

Haley

2%

Kennedy

2%

Gabbard

1%

Rubio

1%

Owens

1%

Cruz

1%

Musk

0%

Youngkin

0%
23%
TrumpVance+7
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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