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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.

On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: general election, Arizona, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Nov. 3-4
875LV
Nov. 3-4
875LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
47%
 Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Trump

52%
52%
Trump  Trump+5
Nov. 3-4
875LV
Nov. 3-4
875LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
46%
 Harris
46%

Harris

46%

Trump

51%

Stein

1%

Oliver

0%
51%
 TrumpTrump+5
Nov. 2-3
750LV
Nov. 2-3
750LV
Victory Insights
 Harris
48%
 Harris
48%

Harris

48%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+1
Nov. 1-3
1,090LV
Nov. 1-3
1,090LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Harris
47%
 Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+2
Nov. 1-3
801RV
Nov. 1-3
801RV
Patriot Polling
 Harris
48%
 Harris
48%

Harris

48%

Trump

51%
51%
Trump  Trump+4
Nov. 1-2
800LV
Nov. 1-2
800LV
InsiderAdvantage
 Harris
46%
 Harris
46%

Harris

46%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+3
Nov. 1-2
967LV
Nov. 1-2
967LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
46%
 Harris
46%

Harris

46%

Trump

52%
52%
Trump  Trump+7
Nov. 1-2
967LV
Nov. 1-2
967LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
45%
 Harris
45%

Harris

45%

Trump

52%

Stein

1%

Oliver

1%
52%
 TrumpTrump+7
Oct. 30-Nov. 2
900LV
Oct. 30-Nov. 2
900LV
Emerson College
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

51%
51%
Trump  Trump+2
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025LV
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025LV
The New York Times/Siena College
 Harris
44%
 Harris
44%

Harris

44%

Trump

48%

Stein

2%

Oliver

1%
48%
 TrumpTrump+4
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025LV
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025LV
The New York Times/Siena College
 Harris
45%
 Harris
45%

Harris

45%

Trump

49%
49%
Trump  Trump+4
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025RV
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025RV
The New York Times/Siena College
 Harris
42%
 Harris
42%

Harris

42%

Trump

47%

Stein

3%

Oliver

2%
47%
 TrumpTrump+5
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025RV
Oct. 25-Nov. 2
1,025RV
The New York Times/Siena College
 Harris
44%
 Harris
44%

Harris

44%

Trump

48%
48%
Trump  Trump+4
Oct. 8-Nov. 1
400LV
Oct. 8-Nov. 1
400LV
ActiVote
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

51%
51%
Trump  Trump+2
Oct. 3-Nov. 1
1,779LV
Oct. 3-Nov. 1
1,779LV
Focaldata
 Harris
48%
 Harris
48%

Harris

48%

Trump

49%

Oliver

1%

Stein

1%
49%
 TrumpTrump+1
Oct. 3-Nov. 1
1,603RV
Oct. 3-Nov. 1
1,603RV
Focaldata
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

47%

Stein

2%

Oliver

1%
47%
 TrumpHarris+2
Oct. 3-Nov. 1
1,779A
Oct. 3-Nov. 1
1,779A
Focaldata
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

47%

Stein

2%

Oliver

1%
47%
 TrumpHarris+2
Oct. 30-31
750LV
Oct. 30-31
750LV
SoCal Strategies
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

50%
50%
Trump  Trump+1
Oct. 30-31
1,005LV
Oct. 30-31
1,005LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
47%
 Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Trump

51%
51%
Trump  Trump+4
Oct. 30-31
1,005LV
Oct. 30-31
1,005LV
AtlasIntel
 Harris
46%
 Harris
46%

Harris

46%

Trump

51%

Stein

1%

Oliver

1%
51%
 TrumpTrump+5
Oct. 29-31
800LV
Oct. 29-31
800LV
OnMessage
 Harris
47%
 Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Trump

50%
50%
Trump  Trump+3
Oct. 28-31
652LV
Oct. 28-31
652LV
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
 Harris
47%
 Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Trump

48%

Oliver

1%

Stein

1%
48%
 TrumpTrump+1
Oct. 25-31
856LV
Oct. 25-31
856LV
YouGov
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

50%
50%
Trump  Trump+1
Oct. 25-31
880RV
Oct. 25-31
880RV
YouGov
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Trump

50%
50%
Trump  Trump+1
Oct. 25-31
856LV
Oct. 25-31
856LV
YouGov
 Harris
48%
 Harris
48%

Harris

48%

Trump

48%

Stein

0%

West

0%
48%
 TrumpEven
Oct. 25-31
880RV
Oct. 25-31
880RV
YouGov
 Harris
47%
 Harris
47%

Harris

47%

Trump

48%

Stein

1%

West

0%
48%
 TrumpTrump+1
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

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