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Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Dec. 15, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Dec. 11-16
428LV
Dec. 11-16
428LV
McLaughlin & Associates
 Harris
35%
 Harris
35%

Harris

35%

Buttigieg

12%

Newsom

7%

Shapiro

5%

Walz

5%

Ocasio-Cortez

3%

Pritzker

3%

Whitmer

3%

O'Rourke

3%

Booker

2%

Klobuchar

1%

Moore

1%

Murphy

1%

Patrick

1%

Polis

0%
12%
 ButtigiegHarris+23

Nov. 21, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Nov. 20-22
400A
Nov. 20-22
400A
Emerson College
 Harris
37%
 Harris
37%

Harris

37%

Newsom

7%

Buttigieg

4%

Whitmer

3%

Shapiro

3%

Obama

2%

Sanders

2%

Walz

1%

Ocasio-Cortez

1%

Jeffries

1%

Moore

1%

Pritzker

1%

Leibowitz

1%

Tlaib

1%

Beshear

0%

Kelly

0%
7%
 NewsomHarris+30

Nov. 17, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Nov. 14-18
465LV
Nov. 14-18
465LV
Echelon Insights
 Harris
41%
 Harris
41%

Harris

41%

Newsom

8%

Shapiro

7%

Buttigieg

6%

Walz

6%

Ocasio-Cortez

4%

Whitmer

3%

Pritzker

2%

Beshear

2%

Booker

2%

Polis

1%

Moore

1%

Fetterman

0%

Warnock

0%
8%
 NewsomHarris+33

Nov. 16, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Nov. 15-17
1,012A
Nov. 15-17
1,012A
Morning Consult
 Harris
43%
 Harris
43%

Harris

43%

Buttigieg

9%

Newsom

8%

Walz

7%

Shapiro

5%

Ocasio-Cortez

4%

Whitmer

3%

Booker

2%

Klobuchar

2%

Warren

2%

Beshear

2%

Moore

1%

Pritzker

1%

Fetterman

1%
9%
 ButtigiegHarris+34

July 22, 2024

President: Democratic primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

July 22-23
431RV
July 22-23
431RV
YouGov
 Harris
77%
 Harris
77%

Harris

77%

Newsom

5%

Buttigieg

5%

Whitmer

3%

Shapiro

2%

Manchin

1%
5%
 NewsomHarris+72
July 21-23
741A
July 21-23
741A
YouGov
 Harris
56%
 Harris
56%

Harris

56%

Newsom

8%

Whitmer

6%

Warnock

2%
8%
 NewsomHarris+48
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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