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Who’s ahead in the Iowa presidential Democratic primary?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Democratic primary, Iowa, 2024

Jan. 11-13
367LV
Jan. 11-13
367LV
Emerson College
 Biden
72%
 Biden
72%

Biden

72%

Williamson

5%

Phillips

2%
5%
 WilliamsonBiden+67
Dec. 15-17
263LV
Dec. 15-17
263LV
Emerson College
 Biden
69%
 Biden
69%

Biden

69%

Williamson

5%

Phillips

1%
5%
 WilliamsonBiden+64
Nov. 17-21
324LV
Nov. 17-21
324LV
Big Data Poll
 Biden
66%
 Biden
66%

Biden

66%

Williamson

3%

Phillips

2%
3%
 WilliamsonBiden+64
Nov. 17-21
330RV
Nov. 17-21
330RV
Big Data Poll
 Biden
65%
 Biden
65%

Biden

65%

Williamson

3%

Phillips

2%
3%
 WilliamsonBiden+63
Sept. 7-9
273LV
Sept. 7-9
273LV
Emerson College
 Biden
50%
 Biden
50%

Biden

50%

Kennedy

9%

Williamson

7%
9%
 KennedyBiden+41
Aug. 17-21
784LV
Aug. 17-21
784LV
HarrisX
 Biden
47%
 Biden
47%

Biden

47%

Kennedy

19%

Williamson

7%
19%
 KennedyBiden+28
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