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Who’s ahead in the national Democratic primary polls?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Democratic primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

July 22-23
431RV
July 22-23
431RV
YouGov
 Harris
77%
 Harris
77%

Harris

77%

Newsom

5%

Buttigieg

5%

Whitmer

3%

Shapiro

2%

Manchin

1%
5%
 NewsomHarris+72
July 21-23
741A
July 21-23
741A
YouGov
 Harris
56%
 Harris
56%

Harris

56%

Newsom

8%

Whitmer

6%

Warnock

2%
8%
 NewsomHarris+48
July 21-22
900RV
July 21-22
900RV
Morning Consult
 Harris
65%
 Harris
65%

Harris

65%

Newsom

7%

Buttigieg

4%

Whitmer

3%

Shapiro

3%

Pritzker

2%

Beshear

1%

Moore

1%

Cooper

1%

Manchin

1%
7%
 NewsomHarris+58
July 19-22
532RV
July 19-22
532RV
YouGov
 Harris
49%
 Harris
49%

Harris

49%

Newsom

9%

Buttigieg

7%

Whitmer

5%

Shapiro

3%

Pritzker

2%

Beshear

2%

Moore

1%

Warnock

1%
9%
 NewsomHarris+40
July 19-21
542RV
July 19-21
542RV
Quinnipiac University
 Harris
45%
 Harris
45%

Harris

45%

Newsom

12%

Buttigieg

11%

Whitmer

7%

Shapiro

4%

Beshear

4%

Kelly

3%

Moore

1%

Pritzker

1%

Polis

1%
12%
 NewsomHarris+33
July 19-21
988RV
July 19-21
988RV
HarrisX
 Biden
45%
 Biden
45%

Biden

45%

Harris

45%
45%
Harris  Even
July 17-20
514A
July 17-20
514A
YouGov
 Harris
41%
 Harris
41%

Harris

41%

Biden

34%
34%
Biden  Harris+7
July 12-16
520A
July 12-16
520A
YouGov
 Biden
46%
 Biden
46%

Biden

46%

Harris

37%
37%
Harris  Biden+9
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

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