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Who’s ahead in the national Democratic primary polls?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Democratic primary, 2028

Dec. 11-16
428LV
Dec. 11-16
428LV
McLaughlin & Associates
 Harris
35%
 Harris
35%

Harris

35%

Buttigieg

12%

Newsom

7%

Shapiro

5%

Walz

5%

Ocasio-Cortez

3%

Pritzker

3%

Whitmer

3%

O'Rourke

3%

Booker

2%

Klobuchar

1%

Moore

1%

Murphy

1%

Patrick

1%

Polis

0%
12%
 ButtigiegHarris+23
Nov. 20-22
400A
Nov. 20-22
400A
Emerson College
 Harris
37%
 Harris
37%

Harris

37%

Newsom

7%

Buttigieg

4%

Whitmer

3%

Shapiro

3%

Obama

2%

Sanders

2%

Walz

1%

Ocasio-Cortez

1%

Jeffries

1%

Moore

1%

Pritzker

1%

Leibowitz

1%

Tlaib

1%

Beshear

0%

Kelly

0%
7%
 NewsomHarris+30
Nov. 14-18
465LV
Nov. 14-18
465LV
Echelon Insights
 Harris
41%
 Harris
41%

Harris

41%

Newsom

8%

Shapiro

7%

Buttigieg

6%

Walz

6%

Ocasio-Cortez

4%

Whitmer

3%

Pritzker

2%

Beshear

2%

Booker

2%

Polis

1%

Moore

1%

Fetterman

0%

Warnock

0%
8%
 NewsomHarris+33
Nov. 15-17
1,012A
Nov. 15-17
1,012A
Morning Consult
 Harris
43%
 Harris
43%

Harris

43%

Buttigieg

9%

Newsom

8%

Walz

7%

Shapiro

5%

Ocasio-Cortez

4%

Whitmer

3%

Booker

2%

Klobuchar

2%

Warren

2%

Beshear

2%

Moore

1%

Pritzker

1%

Fetterman

1%
9%
 ButtigiegHarris+34
Jan. 16-18
1,029LV
Jan. 16-18
1,029LV
Echelon Insights
 Harris
33%
 Harris
33%

Harris

33%

Buttigieg

13%

Newsom

11%

Whitmer

3%

Pritzker

3%

Fetterman

2%

Shapiro

2%

Warnock

2%

Beshear

1%

Moore

1%
13%
 ButtigiegHarris+20
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