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Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Dec. 15, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

Dec. 11-16
463LV
Dec. 11-16
463LV
McLaughlin & Associates
 Vance
25%
 Vance
25%

Vance

25%

Trump Jr.

21%

DeSantis

9%

Haley

4%

Ramaswamy

4%

T. Scott

3%

Gabbard

2%

Youngkin

2%

Sanders

2%

Rubio

2%

Noem

1%

Cotton

1%

Abbott

1%

R. Scott

1%

Stefanik

0%

Hogan

0%
21%
 Trump Jr.Vance+4

Dec. 7, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

Dec. 6-8
994RV
Dec. 6-8
994RV
Morning Consult
 Trump Jr.
30%
 Trump Jr.
30%

Trump Jr.

30%

Vance

30%

DeSantis

9%

Haley

6%

Ramaswamy

5%

Kennedy

5%

Sanders

1%

Rubio

1%

Carlson

1%

Abbott

1%

Kemp

1%

Youngkin

1%
30%
 VanceEven

Nov. 21, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

Nov. 20-22
420A
Nov. 20-22
420A
Emerson College
 Vance
30%
 Vance
30%

Vance

30%

Trump

23%

DeSantis

5%

Ramaswamy

3%

Haley

2%

Kennedy

2%

Gabbard

1%

Rubio

1%

Owens

1%

Cruz

1%

Musk

0%

Youngkin

0%
23%
 TrumpVance+7

Nov. 17, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

Nov. 14-18
475LV
Nov. 14-18
475LV
Echelon Insights
 Vance
37%
 Vance
37%

Vance

37%

Ramaswamy

9%

Haley

9%

DeSantis

8%

Cruz

5%

Rubio

5%

Sanders

2%

Hawley

1%

T. Scott

1%

Youngkin

1%

Noem

1%

Britt

0%

Burgum

0%

Stefanik

0%
9%
 RamaswamyVance+28

July 20, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

July 19-21
395LV
July 19-21
395LV
Echelon Insights
 Vance
25%
 Vance
25%

Vance

25%

DeSantis

14%

Ramaswamy

10%

Haley

9%

Cruz

4%

Sanders

3%

Rubio

2%

T. Scott

2%

Hawley

2%

Youngkin

1%

Donalds

1%

Britt

1%
14%
 DeSantisVance+11
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