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Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 21, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

Nov. 20-22
420A
Nov. 20-22
420A
Vance
30%
Vance
30%

Vance

30%

Trump

23%

DeSantis

5%

Ramaswamy

3%

Haley

2%

Kennedy

2%

Gabbard

1%

Rubio

1%

Owens

1%

Cruz

1%

Musk

0%

Youngkin

0%
23%
TrumpVance+7

Nov. 17, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

Nov. 14-18
475LV
Nov. 14-18
475LV
Vance
37%
Vance
37%

Vance

37%

Ramaswamy

9%

Haley

9%

DeSantis

8%

Cruz

5%

Rubio

5%

Sanders

2%

Hawley

1%

Scott

1%

Youngkin

1%

Noem

1%

Britt

0%

Burgum

0%

Stefanik

0%
9%
RamaswamyVance+28

July 20, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2028

July 19-21
395LV
July 19-21
395LV
Vance
25%
Vance
25%

Vance

25%

DeSantis

14%

Ramaswamy

10%

Haley

9%

Cruz

4%

Sanders

3%

Rubio

2%

Scott

2%

Hawley

2%

Youngkin

1%

Donalds

1%

Britt

1%
14%
DeSantisVance+11

May 22, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

May 21-23
464RV
May 21-23
464RV
Trump
85%
Trump
85%

Trump

85%

Haley

14%
14%
Haley  Trump+71

April 9, 2024

President: Republican primary, Maryland, 2024

April 7-10
451LV
April 7-10
451LV
Trump
74%
Trump
74%

Trump

74%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+56
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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