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Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending May 22, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

May 21-23
464RV
May 21-23
464RV
Trump
85%
Trump
85%

Trump

85%

Haley

14%
14%
Haley  Trump+71

April 9, 2024

President: Republican primary, Maryland, 2024

April 7-10
451LV
April 7-10
451LV
Trump
74%
Trump
74%

Trump

74%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+56

April 4, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

March 29-April 5
1,498RV
March 29-April 5
1,498RV
Trump
72%
Trump
72%

Trump

72%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

11%
13%
DeSantisTrump+59

March 24, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

March 25
374RV
March 25
374RV
DeSantis
29%
DeSantis
29%

DeSantis

29%

Haley

18%

Ramaswamy

12%

Pence

5%

Christie

2%

Burgum

2%

Hutchinson

0%
18%
HaleyDeSantis+11

March 12, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

March 7-13
1,748A
March 7-13
1,748A
Trump
62%
Trump
62%

Trump

62%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+43
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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