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Who’s ahead in all?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Feb. 19, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 18-20
612RV
Feb. 18-20
612RV
Trump
78%
Trump
78%

Trump

78%

Haley

12%
12%
Haley  Trump+66

Feb. 18, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 17-19
3,854LV
Feb. 17-19
3,854LV
Trump
81%
Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+63
Feb. 15-19
576RV
Feb. 15-19
576RV
Trump
80%
Trump
80%

Trump

80%

Haley

17%
17%
Haley  Trump+63

President: Republican primary, Maine, 2024

Feb. 15-19
267LV
Feb. 15-19
267LV
Trump
77%
Trump
77%

Trump

77%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+58

President: Republican primary, Vermont, 2024

Feb. 15-19
309LV
Feb. 15-19
309LV
Trump
61%
Trump
61%

Trump

61%

Haley

31%
31%
Haley  Trump+30

Feb. 17, 2024

President: Republican primary, California, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 16-18
315LV
Feb. 16-18
315LV
Trump
72%
Trump
72%

Trump

72%

Haley

20%
20%
Haley  Trump+52

President: Republican primary, South Carolina, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 15-18
500LV
Feb. 15-18
500LV
Trump
63%
Trump
63%

Trump

63%

Haley

35%
35%
Haley  Trump+28

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Nov. 20-Feb. 18
782LV
Nov. 20-Feb. 18
782LV
Trump
83%
Trump
83%

Trump

83%

Haley

17%
17%
Haley  Trump+66

Feb. 15, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 14-16
2,476LV
Feb. 14-16
2,476LV
Trump
82%
Trump
82%

Trump

82%

Haley

16%
16%
Haley  Trump+66

President: Republican primary, South Carolina, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 14-16
728LV
Feb. 14-16
728LV
Trump
61%
Trump
61%

Trump

61%

Haley

39%
39%
Haley  Trump+21

Feb. 14, 2024

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 5-15
309LV
Feb. 5-15
309LV
Trump
74%
Trump
74%

Trump

74%

Haley

15%
15%
Haley  Trump+59
Feb. 5-15
358RV
Feb. 5-15
358RV
Trump
73%
Trump
73%

Trump

73%

Haley

15%
15%
Haley  Trump+58
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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