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Who’s ahead in the Arizona presidential Republican primary?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Arizona, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 23-Feb. 4
420LV
Jan. 23-Feb. 4
420LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
75%
 Trump
75%

Trump

75%

Haley

23%
23%
Haley  Trump+52
Nov. 1-30
886LV
Nov. 1-30
886LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

DeSantis

11%

Haley

9%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

5%

Hutchinson

1%

Scott

1%

Burgum

1%
11%
 DeSantisTrump+53
Oct. 25-31
348RV
Oct. 25-31
348RV
Noble Predictive Insights
 Trump
68%
 Trump
68%

Trump

68%

DeSantis

32%
32%
DeSantis  Trump+36
Oct. 25-31
348RV
Oct. 25-31
348RV
Noble Predictive Insights
 Trump
53%
 Trump
53%

Trump

53%

DeSantis

16%

Ramaswamy

9%

Haley

8%

Pence

3%

Christie

3%

Scott

1%

Burgum

1%

Johnson

0%

Binkley

0%
16%
 DeSantisTrump+37
Oct. 1-31
855LV
Oct. 1-31
855LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
58%
 Trump
58%

Trump

58%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

5%

Pence

5%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%

Hurd

0%
13%
 DeSantisTrump+45
Sept. 1-30
848LV
Sept. 1-30
848LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
53%
 Trump
53%

Trump

53%

DeSantis

18%

Ramaswamy

8%

Haley

5%

Christie

5%

Pence

5%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%

Hurd

0%
18%
 DeSantisTrump+35
Aug. 1-31
779LV
Aug. 1-31
779LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
57%
 Trump
57%

Trump

57%

DeSantis

17%

Pence

8%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

4%

Haley

2%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%

Hurd

0%
17%
 DeSantisTrump+40
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