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Who’s ahead in the California presidential Republican primary?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

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ADULTS

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LV

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, California, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 29-March 3
283LV
Feb. 29-March 3
283LV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
 Trump
76%
 Trump
76%

Trump

76%

Haley

25%
25%
Haley  Trump+51
Feb. 29-March 3
338RV
Feb. 29-March 3
338RV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

Haley

21%
21%
Haley  Trump+43
Feb. 24-27
342LV
Feb. 24-27
342LV
Emerson College
 Trump
75%
 Trump
75%

Trump

75%

Haley

17%
17%
Haley  Trump+58
Feb. 22-26
1,053LV
Feb. 22-26
1,053LV
University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies
 Trump
75%
 Trump
75%

Trump

75%

Haley

15%

DeSantis

3%

Christie

1%

Ramaswamy

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Binkley

0%

Stuckenberg

0%

Swift

0%
15%
 HaleyTrump+60
Feb. 16-18
315LV
Feb. 16-18
315LV
Emerson College
 Trump
72%
 Trump
72%

Trump

72%

Haley

20%
20%
Haley  Trump+52
Feb. 6-13
275LV
Feb. 6-13
275LV
Public Policy Institute of California
 Trump
69%
 Trump
69%

Trump

69%

Haley

29%
29%
Haley  Trump+40
Feb. 6-13
275LV
Feb. 6-13
275LV
Public Policy Institute of California
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

Haley

17%

Christie

3%

DeSantis

3%

Ramaswamy

3%

Hutchinson

2%

Swift

1%
17%
 HaleyTrump+47
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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