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Who’s ahead in the Florida presidential Republican primary?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Florida, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 23-Feb. 4
1,422LV
Jan. 23-Feb. 4
1,422LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
85%
 Trump
85%

Trump

85%

Haley

14%
14%
Haley  Trump+71
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Victory Insights
 Trump
57%
 Trump
57%

Trump

57%

DeSantis

26%
26%
DeSantis  Trump+31
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Dec. 8-9
1,220LV
Victory Insights
 Trump
60%
 Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

19%

Haley

8%

Christie

5%

Ramaswamy

1%
19%
 DeSantisTrump+41
Nov. 1-30
3,148LV
Nov. 1-30
3,148LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
60%
 Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

23%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

2%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%
23%
 DeSantisTrump+37
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
 Trump
63%
 Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

30%
30%
DeSantis  Trump+33
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Oct. 27-Nov. 11
400RV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
 Trump
61%
 Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

20%

Haley

9%

Christie

1%

Ramaswamy

0%

Burgum

0%
20%
 DeSantisTrump+41
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab
 Trump
59%
 Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

29%
29%
DeSantis  Trump+30
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
Oct. 23-Nov. 4
788LV
University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab
 Trump
60%
 Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

21%

Haley

6%

Christie

2%

Ramaswamy

1%

Pence

1%

Scott

0%

Burgum

0%

Hutchinson

0%
21%
 DeSantisTrump+39
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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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