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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Nov. 3-5
1,089LV
Nov. 3-5
1,089LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Trump
50%
 Trump
50%

Trump

50%

Haley

15%

DeSantis

13%

Christie

5%

Ramaswamy

4%

Scott

4%

Burgum

3%

Hutchinson

0%
15%
 HaleyTrump+35
Nov. 3-5
3,873LV
Nov. 3-5
3,873LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
63%
 Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

15%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

3%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%
15%
 DeSantisTrump+48
Oct. 30-Nov. 5
561LV
Oct. 30-Nov. 5
561LV
Big Village
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

9%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

2%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%

Binkley

0%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+52
Oct. 30-Nov. 5
669RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 5
669RV
Big Village
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

10%

Ramaswamy

6%

Scott

2%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%

Binkley

0%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+53
Oct. 30-Nov. 5
763A
Oct. 30-Nov. 5
763A
Big Village
 Trump
65%
 Trump
65%

Trump

65%

DeSantis

10%

Haley

9%

Ramaswamy

6%

Scott

3%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%

Binkley

1%
10%
 DeSantisTrump+55
Nov. 1-3
584RV
Nov. 1-3
584RV
TIPP Insights
 Trump
60%
 Trump
60%

Trump

60%

DeSantis

13%

Ramaswamy

7%

Haley

5%

Christie

3%

Scott

2%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

0%
13%
 DeSantisTrump+47
Oct. 31-Nov. 3
556LV
Oct. 31-Nov. 3
556LV
YouGov
 Trump
61%
 Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

18%

Haley

9%

Ramaswamy

5%

Scott

4%

Christie

2%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

0%
18%
 DeSantisTrump+43
Oct. 31-Nov. 2
2,476LV
Oct. 31-Nov. 2
2,476LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

7%

Scott

2%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%
14%
 DeSantisTrump+50
Oct. 27-Nov. 2
608RV
Oct. 27-Nov. 2
608RV
SSRS
 Trump
61%
 Trump
61%

Trump

61%

DeSantis

17%

Haley

10%

Ramaswamy

4%

Scott

3%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
17%
 DeSantisTrump+44
Oct. 26-Nov. 2
1,344LV
Oct. 26-Nov. 2
1,344LV
Rasmussen Reports
 Trump
50%
 Trump
50%

Trump

50%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

9%

Christie

5%

Ramaswamy

3%

Pence

3%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+38
Oct. 30-Nov. 1
753RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 1
753RV
HarrisX
 DeSantis
36%
 DeSantis
36%

DeSantis

36%

Ramaswamy

18%

Haley

12%

Scott

5%

Christie

3%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Stapleton

1%

Binkley

0%
18%
 RamaswamyDeSantis+18
Oct. 30-Nov. 1
753RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 1
753RV
HarrisX
 Trump
62%
 Trump
62%

Trump

62%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

7%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%

Stapleton

0%

Binkley

0%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+50
Oct. 28-31
518RV
Oct. 28-31
518RV
YouGov
 Trump
56%
 Trump
56%

Trump

56%

DeSantis

17%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
17%
 DeSantisTrump+39
Oct. 28-31
558A
Oct. 28-31
558A
YouGov
 Trump
56%
 Trump
56%

Trump

56%

DeSantis

15%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

1%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

1%
15%
 DeSantisTrump+41
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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