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Who’s ahead in the national Republican primary polls?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

March 8-11
342RV
March 8-11
342RV
Trump
81%
Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

15%
15%
Haley  Trump+66
March 5-6
578LV
March 5-6
578LV
Trump
81%
Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

15%
15%
Haley  Trump+66
March 3-5
601RV
March 3-5
601RV
Trump
76%
Trump
76%

Trump

76%

Haley

15%
15%
Haley  Trump+61
March 3-5
638A
March 3-5
638A
Trump
74%
Trump
74%

Trump

74%

Haley

13%
13%
Haley  Trump+61
March 1-3
3,804LV
March 1-3
3,804LV
Trump
82%
Trump
82%

Trump

82%

Haley

17%
17%
Haley  Trump+65
Feb. 28-March 1
500RV
Feb. 28-March 1
500RV
Trump
79%
Trump
79%

Trump

79%

Haley

11%
11%
Haley  Trump+68
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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