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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In June 2023, we debuted a new way of calculating our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Sep.18-21
1,091LV
Sep.18-21
1,091LV
Trump
56%
Trump
56%

Trump

56%

DeSantis

14%

Ramaswamy

6%

Haley

4%

Pence

4%

Burgum

3%

Christie

3%

Scott

3%

Elder

1%

Johnson

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Binkley

0%

Hurd

0%
14%
DeSantisTrump+42
Sep.15-20
474A
Sep.15-20
474A
Trump
54%
Trump
54%

Trump

54%

DeSantis

15%

Haley

7%

Pence

6%

Scott

4%

Christie

3%

Ramaswamy

3%

Burgum

0%

Hutchinson

0%
15%
DeSantisTrump+39
Sep.15-19
321RV
Sep.15-19
321RV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

16%

Haley

7%

Pence

4%

Christie

4%

Scott

3%

Ramaswamy

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
16%
DeSantisTrump+43
Sep.13-19
1,089RV
Sep.13-19
1,089RV
Trump
56%
Trump
56%

Trump

56%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

5%

Ramaswamy

5%

Pence

3%

Christie

2%

Scott

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Stapleton

1%

Hurd

1%

Burgum

1%

Johnson

1%

Elder

1%

Binkley

0%

Suarez

0%
14%
DeSantisTrump+42
Sep.17-18
518LV
Sep.17-18
518LV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

12%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

5%

Pence

5%

Haley

3%

Scott

2%

Hurd

1%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

1%

Johnson

0%
12%
DeSantisTrump+47
Sep.14-18
469RV
Sep.14-18
469RV
Trump
65%
Trump
65%

Trump

65%

DeSantis

22%
22%
DeSantis  Trump+43
Sep.14-18
470RV
Sep.14-18
470RV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

5%

Ramaswamy

5%

Pence

3%

Scott

1%

Burgum

1%

Christie

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Elder

0%
13%
DeSantisTrump+46
Sep.15-17
3,404LV
Sep.15-17
3,404LV
Trump
59%
Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

13%

Ramaswamy

10%

Haley

6%

Pence

5%

Scott

2%

Christie

2%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%

Hurd

0%
13%
DeSantisTrump+46
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