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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 18
535LV
Jan. 18
535LV
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
 Trump
72%
 Trump
72%

Trump

72%

DeSantis

9%

Haley

9%

Hutchinson

0%
9%
 DeSantisTrump+63
Jan. 17
1,119LV
Jan. 17
1,119LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
73%
 Trump
73%

Trump

73%

Haley

14%

DeSantis

12%
14%
 HaleyTrump+59
Jan. 16-17
373RV
Jan. 16-17
373RV
HarrisX
 DeSantis
43%
 DeSantis
43%

DeSantis

43%

Haley

28%

Binkley

2%
28%
 HaleyDeSantis+15
Jan. 16-17
373RV
Jan. 16-17
373RV
HarrisX
 Trump
72%
 Trump
72%

Trump

72%

Haley

13%

DeSantis

7%

Binkley

0%
13%
 HaleyTrump+59
Jan. 11-13
3,926LV
Jan. 11-13
3,926LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
69%
 Trump
69%

Trump

69%

Haley

12%

DeSantis

11%

Ramaswamy

5%

Hutchinson

1%
12%
 HaleyTrump+57
Jan. 10-12
721LV
Jan. 10-12
721LV
YouGov
 Trump
69%
 Trump
69%

Trump

69%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

12%

Ramaswamy

4%

Hutchinson

1%
14%
 DeSantisTrump+55
Jan. 9-12
419A
Jan. 9-12
419A
Angus Reid Global
 Trump
63%
 Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

13%

Ramaswamy

7%

Haley

6%

Hutchinson

0%
13%
 DeSantisTrump+50
Jan. 8-10
2,476LV
Jan. 8-10
2,476LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
67%
 Trump
67%

Trump

67%

Haley

11%

DeSantis

11%

Ramaswamy

6%

Hutchinson

1%
11%
 HaleyTrump+56
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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