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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

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ADULTS

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VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Dec. 31-Jan. 2
529RV
Dec. 31-Jan. 2
529RV
YouGov
 Trump
63%
 Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

8%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

1%

Hutchinson

0%
14%
 DeSantisTrump+49
Dec. 30-Jan. 1
4,206LV
Dec. 30-Jan. 1
4,206LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
66%
 Trump
66%

Trump

66%

DeSantis

11%

Haley

11%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

4%

Hutchinson

1%
11%
 DeSantisTrump+55
Dec. 27-29
2,476LV
Dec. 27-29
2,476LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
65%
 Trump
65%

Trump

65%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

12%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

3%

Hutchinson

1%
13%
 DeSantisTrump+52
Dec. 24-26
2,476LV
Dec. 24-26
2,476LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
65%
 Trump
65%

Trump

65%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

12%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

3%

Hutchinson

1%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+53
Dec. 23-26
325LV
Dec. 23-26
325LV
Suffolk University
 Trump
62%
 Trump
62%

Trump

62%

Haley

13%

DeSantis

10%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

4%
13%
 HaleyTrump+50
Dec. 21-23
2,476LV
Dec. 21-23
2,476LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
67%
 Trump
67%

Trump

67%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

11%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

3%

Hutchinson

1%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+55
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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