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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 24
1,297LV
Jan. 24
1,297LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
81%
 Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+63
Jan. 22-24
554A
Jan. 22-24
554A
Ipsos
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+45
Jan. 22
1,276LV
Jan. 22
1,276LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
79%
 Trump
79%

Trump

79%

Haley

20%
20%
Haley  Trump+59
Jan. 19-21
3,855LV
Jan. 19-21
3,855LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
75%
 Trump
75%

Trump

75%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

12%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+63
Jan. 17-21
RV
Jan. 17-21
RV
HarrisX
 Trump
74%
 Trump
74%

Trump

74%

Haley

11%

DeSantis

9%
11%
 HaleyTrump+63
Jan. 18
535LV
Jan. 18
535LV
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
 Trump
72%
 Trump
72%

Trump

72%

DeSantis

9%

Haley

9%

Hutchinson

0%
9%
 DeSantisTrump+63
Jan. 17-18
916RV
Jan. 17-18
916RV
HarrisX/Harris Poll
 Trump
71%
 Trump
71%

Trump

71%

DeSantis

10%

Haley

9%
10%
 DeSantisTrump+61
Jan. 16-18
2,476LV
Jan. 16-18
2,476LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
74%
 Trump
74%

Trump

74%

Haley

13%

DeSantis

11%
13%
 HaleyTrump+61
Jan. 16-18
832LV
Jan. 16-18
832LV
Echelon Insights
 Trump
77%
 Trump
77%

Trump

77%

Haley

20%
20%
Haley  Trump+57
Jan. 16-18
832LV
Jan. 16-18
832LV
Echelon Insights
 Trump
76%
 Trump
76%

Trump

76%

DeSantis

20%
20%
DeSantis  Trump+56
Jan. 16-18
832LV
Jan. 16-18
832LV
Echelon Insights
 Trump
68%
 Trump
68%

Trump

68%

Haley

13%

DeSantis

13%

Binkley

0%
13%
 HaleyTrump+55
Jan. 16-17
373RV
Jan. 16-17
373RV
HarrisX
 DeSantis
43%
 DeSantis
43%

DeSantis

43%

Haley

28%

Binkley

2%
28%
 HaleyDeSantis+15
Jan. 16-17
373RV
Jan. 16-17
373RV
HarrisX
 Trump
72%
 Trump
72%

Trump

72%

Haley

13%

DeSantis

7%

Binkley

0%
13%
 HaleyTrump+59
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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