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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 28-30
679LV
Jan. 28-30
679LV
Rasmussen Reports
 Trump
56%
 Trump
56%

Trump

56%

Haley

23%
23%
Haley  Trump+33
Jan. 25-30
442RV
Jan. 25-30
442RV
SSRS
 Trump
70%
 Trump
70%

Trump

70%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+51
Jan. 26-29
571LV
Jan. 26-29
571LV
Emerson College
 Trump
73%
 Trump
73%

Trump

73%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+54
Jan. 25-29
451RV
Jan. 25-29
451RV
YouGov
 Trump
79%
 Trump
79%

Trump

79%

Haley

14%
14%
Haley  Trump+65
Jan. 25-29
696RV
Jan. 25-29
696RV
Quinnipiac University
 Trump
77%
 Trump
77%

Trump

77%

Haley

21%
21%
Haley  Trump+56
Jan. 26-28
4,044LV
Jan. 26-28
4,044LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
81%
 Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+63
Jan. 26-28
299RV
Jan. 26-28
299RV
Leger
 Trump
73%
 Trump
73%

Trump

73%

Haley

13%
13%
Haley  Trump+60
Jan. 23-25
2,476LV
Jan. 23-25
2,476LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
81%
 Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

17%
17%
Haley  Trump+64
Jan. 24
1,297LV
Jan. 24
1,297LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
81%
 Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

18%
18%
Haley  Trump+63
Jan. 22-24
554A
Jan. 22-24
554A
Ipsos
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+45
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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