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Who’s ahead in the national polls?

Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Dec. 4-6
466LV
Dec. 4-6
466LV
Emerson College
 Trump
77%
 Trump
77%

Trump

77%

Haley

24%
24%
Haley  Trump+53
Dec. 4-6
466LV
Dec. 4-6
466LV
Emerson College
 Trump
64%
 Trump
64%

Trump

64%

Haley

14%

DeSantis

7%

Ramaswamy

4%

Christie

4%

Hutchinson

2%

Burgum

0%
14%
 HaleyTrump+50
Nov. 30-Dec. 4
540RV
Nov. 30-Dec. 4
540RV
Monmouth University Polling Institute
 Trump
58%
 Trump
58%

Trump

58%

DeSantis

18%

Haley

12%

Ramaswamy

4%

Christie

2%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

0%
18%
 DeSantisTrump+40
Nov. 30-Dec. 4
540RV
Nov. 30-Dec. 4
540RV
Monmouth University Polling Institute
 Trump
53%
 Trump
53%

Trump

53%

DeSantis

11%

Haley

10%

Ramaswamy

3%

Christie

1%

Pence

0%

Scott

0%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%
11%
 DeSantisTrump+42
Nov. 29-Dec. 4
419RV
Nov. 29-Dec. 4
419RV
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO
 Trump
59%
 Trump
59%

Trump

59%

Haley

15%

DeSantis

14%

Ramaswamy

4%

Christie

2%

Burgum

0%

Hutchinson

0%
15%
 HaleyTrump+44
Dec. 1-3
3,526LV
Dec. 1-3
3,526LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
66%
 Trump
66%

Trump

66%

DeSantis

13%

Haley

10%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

3%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%
13%
 DeSantisTrump+53
Nov. 27-Dec. 3
985RV
Nov. 27-Dec. 3
985RV
Big Village
 Trump
67%
 Trump
67%

Trump

67%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

10%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

2%

Binkley

1%

Hutchinson

1%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+56
Nov. 27-Dec. 3
1,122A
Nov. 27-Dec. 3
1,122A
Big Village
 Trump
67%
 Trump
67%

Trump

67%

DeSantis

11%

Haley

9%

Ramaswamy

5%

Christie

2%

Binkley

1%

Hutchinson

1%
11%
 DeSantisTrump+56
Nov. 30-Dec. 2
1,084LV
Nov. 30-Dec. 2
1,084LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Trump
54%
 Trump
54%

Trump

54%

DeSantis

17%

Haley

16%

Christie

6%

Ramaswamy

4%

Hutchinson

1%

Burgum

0%
17%
 DeSantisTrump+37
Nov. 29-Dec. 1
567RV
Nov. 29-Dec. 1
567RV
TIPP Insights
 Trump
61%
 Trump
61%

Trump

61%

Haley

10%

DeSantis

9%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

1%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

1%
10%
 HaleyTrump+51
Nov. 27-Dec. 1
767RV
Nov. 27-Dec. 1
767RV
HarrisX
 Trump
75%
 Trump
75%

Trump

75%

DeSantis

25%
25%
DeSantis  Trump+50
Nov. 27-Dec. 1
767RV
Nov. 27-Dec. 1
767RV
HarrisX
 Trump
79%
 Trump
79%

Trump

79%

Haley

21%
21%
Haley  Trump+58
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

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Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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