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Who’s ahead in the Pennsylvania presidential Republican primary?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Pennsylvania, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Jan. 23-Feb. 4
932LV
Jan. 23-Feb. 4
932LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
81%
 Trump
81%

Trump

81%

Haley

17%
17%
Haley  Trump+64
Jan. 4-8
651RV
Jan. 4-8
651RV
Quinnipiac University
 Trump
61%
 Trump
61%

Trump

61%

Haley

14%

DeSantis

10%

Christie

6%

Ramaswamy

4%

Hutchinson

0%
14%
 HaleyTrump+47
Nov. 1-30
2,056LV
Nov. 1-30
2,056LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
63%
 Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

9%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

4%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%
14%
 DeSantisTrump+49
Nov. 16-19
611LV
Nov. 16-19
611LV
Big Data Poll
 Trump
61%
 Trump
61%

Trump

61%

Haley

10%

DeSantis

10%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

2%

Burgum

1%

Binkley

1%

Hutchinson

0%
10%
 HaleyTrump+51
Nov. 16-19
624RV
Nov. 16-19
624RV
Big Data Poll
 Trump
61%
 Trump
61%

Trump

61%

Haley

10%

DeSantis

10%

Ramaswamy

6%

Christie

2%

Binkley

1%

Burgum

1%

Hutchinson

0%
10%
 HaleyTrump+51
Oct. 1-31
2,009LV
Oct. 1-31
2,009LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
59%
 Trump
59%

Trump

59%

DeSantis

15%

Haley

7%

Ramaswamy

7%

Pence

6%

Christie

4%

Scott

1%

Hutchinson

0%

Burgum

0%

Hurd

0%
15%
 DeSantisTrump+44
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