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Who’s ahead in the Virginia presidential Republican primary?

Updating average for each candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. In November 2023, we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

President: Republican primary, Virginia, 2024
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Feb. 29-March 3
183LV
Feb. 29-March 3
183LV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
 Trump
55%
 Trump
55%

Trump

55%

Haley

45%
45%
Haley  Trump+10
Feb. 29-March 3
204RV
Feb. 29-March 3
204RV
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research
 Trump
51%
 Trump
51%

Trump

51%

Haley

41%
41%
Haley  Trump+11
Feb. 11-19
392LV
Feb. 11-19
392LV
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research
 Trump
51%
 Trump
51%

Trump

51%

Haley

43%
43%
Haley  Trump+8
Feb. 11-19
177A
Feb. 11-19
177A
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research
 Trump
75%
 Trump
75%

Trump

75%

Haley

15%
15%
Haley  Trump+60
Jan. 23-Feb. 4
436LV
Jan. 23-Feb. 4
436LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
78%
 Trump
78%

Trump

78%

Haley

19%
19%
Haley  Trump+59
Dec. 1-31
LV
Dec. 1-31
LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
65%
 Trump
65%

Trump

65%

DeSantis

12%

Haley

12%
12%
 DeSantisTrump+53
Nov. 1-30
878LV
Nov. 1-30
878LV
Morning Consult
 Trump
63%
 Trump
63%

Trump

63%

DeSantis

14%

Haley

9%

Ramaswamy

7%

Christie

5%

Scott

1%

Burgum

0%
14%
 DeSantisTrump+49
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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