UPDATED Sep. 27, 2022, at 8:10 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Missouri Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2018

600LV
Nov.3-5
600LV
McCaskill
45%
McCaskill
45%

McCaskill

45%

Hawley

46%
46%
Hawley  Hawley+1
1,791LV
Oct.29-Nov.4
1,791LV
McCaskill
44%
McCaskill
44%

McCaskill

44%

Hawley

48%
48%
Hawley  Hawley+4
732LV
Nov.1-3
732LV
McCaskill
46%
McCaskill
46%

McCaskill

46%

Hawley

49%
49%
Hawley  Hawley+3
1,424LV
Nov.1-2
1,424LV
McCaskill
47%
McCaskill
47%

McCaskill

47%

Hawley

47%

Campbell

1%

Crain

1%

O'Dear

1%
47%
HawleyEven
600LV
Oct.31-Nov.2
600LV
McCaskill
45%
McCaskill
45%

McCaskill

45%

Hawley

46%
46%
Hawley  Hawley+1
920RV
Oct.30-Nov.1
920RV
McCaskill
46%
McCaskill
46%

McCaskill

46%

Hawley

43%

Campbell

3%

Crain

2%
43%
HawleyMcCaskill+3
600LV
Oct.30-Nov.1
600LV
McCaskill
47%
McCaskill
47%

McCaskill

47%

Hawley

44%

Campbell

3%

Crain

2%
44%
HawleyMcCaskill+3
920RV
Oct.30-Nov.1
920RV
McCaskill
50%
McCaskill
50%

McCaskill

50%

Hawley

46%
46%
Hawley  McCaskill+4
600LV
Oct.30-Nov.1
600LV
McCaskill
50%
McCaskill
50%

McCaskill

50%

Hawley

47%
47%
Hawley  McCaskill+3
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Candidate is an incumbent

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