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Who’s ahead in the Texas Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

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VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

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REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2018, General election

Nov. 3-5
2,135LV
Nov. 3-5
2,135LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 O'Rourke
43%
 O'Rourke
43%

O'Rourke

43%

Cruz

52%
52%
Cruz  Cruz+9
Nov. 1-2
1,211LV
Nov. 1-2
1,211LV
Change Research
 O'Rourke
49%
 O'Rourke
49%

O'Rourke

49%

Cruz

49%

Dikeman

1%
49%
 CruzEven
Oct. 28-30
781LV
Oct. 28-30
781LV
Emerson College
 O'Rourke
47%
 O'Rourke
47%

O'Rourke

47%

Cruz

50%

Dikeman

1%
50%
 CruzCruz+3
Oct. 22-28
1,078LV
Oct. 22-28
1,078LV
Quinnipiac University
 O'Rourke
46%
 O'Rourke
46%

O'Rourke

46%

Cruz

51%
51%
Cruz  Cruz+5
Oct. 15-28
905LV
Oct. 15-28
905LV
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research
 O'Rourke
43%
 O'Rourke
43%

O'Rourke

43%

Cruz

47%
47%
Cruz  Cruz+4
Oct. 15-28
1,033RV
Oct. 15-28
1,033RV
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research
 O'Rourke
42%
 O'Rourke
42%

O'Rourke

42%

Cruz

47%
47%
Cruz  Cruz+4
Oct. 25-26
588LV
Oct. 25-26
588LV
Dixie Strategies
 O'Rourke
42%
 O'Rourke
42%

O'Rourke

42%

Cruz

52%
52%
Cruz  Cruz+10
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Candidate is an incumbent

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