UPDATED Nov. 21, 2024, at 1:27 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Arizona Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Dates	Samplei SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS	Pollster	Sponsor	Result	Net result
Datesi SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS	Pollster	Result

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2020, Special general

Oct. 27-Nov. 2

610

Oct. 27-Nov. 2

610LV

Ipsos

Kelly

53%

Kelly

53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

44%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 29-Nov. 1

988

Oct. 29-Nov. 1

988RV

Marist College

Kelly

52%

Kelly

52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

45%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 29-Nov. 1

717

Oct. 29-Nov. 1

717LV

Marist College

Kelly

52%

Kelly

52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

46%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 29-Nov. 1

409

Oct. 29-Nov. 1

409LV

Change Research

Kelly

51%

Kelly

51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

47%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 27-Nov. 1

333

Oct. 27-Nov. 1

333LV

Swayable

Kelly

55%

Kelly

55%

Kelly

55%

McSally

45%

McSally

Kelly

+10

Oct. 27-Nov. 1

1,195

Oct. 27-Nov. 1

1,195LV

Data for Progress

Kelly

54%

Kelly

54%

Kelly

54%

McSally

46%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 29-31

732

Oct. 29-31

732LV

Emerson College

Kelly

50%

Kelly

50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

48%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 22-31

1,059

Oct. 22-31

1,059LV

Morning Consult

Kelly

48%

Kelly

48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

44%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 28-30

550

Oct. 28-30

550LV

Data Orbital

Kelly

47%

Kelly

47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

46%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 26-30

1,252

Oct. 26-30

1,252LV

The New York Times/Siena College

Kelly

50%

Kelly

50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

43%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 23-30

892

Oct. 23-30

892RV

CNN/SSRS

Kelly

51%

Kelly

51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

45%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 23-30

865

Oct. 23-30

865LV

CNN/SSRS

Kelly

52%

Kelly

52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

45%

McSally

Kelly

Oct. 27-29

800

Oct. 27-29

800LV

Rasmussen Reports

Kelly

48%

Kelly

48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

43%

McSally

Kelly

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

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