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Who’s ahead in the Arizona Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2020, General election

Oct. 27-Nov. 2
610LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 2
610LV
Kelly
53%
Kelly
53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

44%
44%
McSally  Kelly+9
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
988RV
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
988RV
Kelly
52%
Kelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

45%
45%
McSally  Kelly+7
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
717LV
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
717LV
Kelly
52%
Kelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

46%
46%
McSally  Kelly+6
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
409LV
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
409LV
Kelly
51%
Kelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

47%
47%
McSally  Kelly+4
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
333LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
333LV
Kelly
55%
Kelly
55%

Kelly

55%

McSally

45%
45%
McSally  Kelly+10
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
1,195LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
1,195LV
Kelly
54%
Kelly
54%

Kelly

54%

McSally

46%
46%
McSally  Kelly+8
Oct. 29-31
732LV
Oct. 29-31
732LV
Kelly
50%
Kelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

48%
48%
McSally  Kelly+3
Oct. 22-31
1,059LV
Oct. 22-31
1,059LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

44%
44%
McSally  Kelly+4
Oct. 28-30
550LV
Oct. 28-30
550LV
Kelly
47%
Kelly
47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

46%
46%
McSally  Kelly+1
Oct. 26-30
1,252LV
Oct. 26-30
1,252LV
Kelly
50%
Kelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

43%
43%
McSally  Kelly+7
Oct. 23-30
892RV
Oct. 23-30
892RV
Kelly
51%
Kelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

45%
45%
McSally  Kelly+6
Oct. 23-30
865LV
Oct. 23-30
865LV
Kelly
52%
Kelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

45%
45%
McSally  Kelly+7
Oct. 27-29
800LV
Oct. 27-29
800LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

43%
43%
McSally  Kelly+5
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

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