UPDATED Nov. 13, 2024, at 1:09 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Georgia Senate special runoff?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Dates	Samplei SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS	Pollster	Sponsor	Result	Net result
Datesi SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS	Pollster	Result

U.S. Senate, Georgia, 2020, special runoff

Jan. 2-4

1,056

Jan. 2-4

1,056LV

Trafalgar Group

Warnock

48%

Warnock

48%

Warnock

48%

Loeffler

50%

Loeffler

Jan. 2-4

857

Jan. 2-4

857LV

AtlasIntel

Warnock

51%

Warnock

51%

Warnock

51%

Loeffler

47%

Loeffler

Warnock

Jan. 3

500

Jan. 3

500LV

InsiderAdvantage

Warnock

49%

Warnock

49%

Warnock

49%

Loeffler

49%

Loeffler

Jan. 2-3

500

Jan. 2-3

500LV

National Research

Warnock

46%

Warnock

46%

Warnock

46%

Loeffler

45%

Loeffler

Warnock

Dec. 30-Jan. 3

550

Dec. 30-Jan. 3

550LV

University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School

Warnock

48%

Warnock

48%

Warnock

48%

Loeffler

49%

Loeffler

Dec. 30-Jan. 3

1,342

Dec. 30-Jan. 3

1,342RV

Targoz Market Research

Warnock

49%

Warnock

49%

Warnock

49%

Loeffler

48%

Loeffler

Warnock

Dec. 30-Jan. 3

713

Dec. 30-Jan. 3

713LV

Targoz Market Research

Warnock

51%

Warnock

51%

Warnock

51%

Loeffler

49%

Loeffler

Warnock

Dec. 25-Jan. 1

1,680

Dec. 25-Jan. 1

1,680LV

AtlasIntel

Warnock

51%

Warnock

51%

Warnock

51%

Loeffler

47%

Loeffler

Warnock

Dec. 29-30

1,011

Dec. 29-30

1,011LV

Gravis Marketing

Warnock

49%

Warnock

49%

Warnock

49%

Loeffler

47%

Loeffler

Warnock

Dec. 28-29

500

Dec. 28-29

500LV

JMC Analytics

Warnock

54%

Warnock

54%

Warnock

54%

Loeffler

45%

Loeffler

Warnock

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