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Who’s ahead in the Kentucky Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

SAMPLE TYPES:

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

DatesSamplePollsterResultNet result
Dates
Sample
PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Kentucky, 2020, General election

Oct. 23-Nov. 1, 2020
365LV
Oct. 23-Nov. 1, 2020
365LV
Swayable
 McGrath
46%
 McGrath
46%

McGrath

46%

McConnell

49%

Barron

5%
49%
 McConnellMcConnell+3
Oct. 22-31, 2020
911LV
Oct. 22-31, 2020
911LV
Morning Consult
 McGrath
40%
 McGrath
40%

McGrath

40%

McConnell

51%
51%
McConnell  McConnell+11
Oct. 16-28, 2020
250RV
Oct. 16-28, 2020
250RV
Bluegrass Community and Technical College
 McGrath
40%
 McGrath
40%

McGrath

40%

McConnell

50%
50%
McConnell  McConnell+10
Oct. 19-20, 2020
640LV
Oct. 19-20, 2020
640LV
Cygnal
 McGrath
40%
 McGrath
40%

McGrath

40%

McConnell

50%

Barron

5%
50%
 McConnellMcConnell+10
Oct. 12-15, 2020
625LV
Oct. 12-15, 2020
625LV
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
 McGrath
42%
 McGrath
42%

McGrath

42%

McConnell

51%

Barron

4%
51%
 McConnellMcConnell+9

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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