UPDATED Sep. 27, 2022, at 8:10 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Montana Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Montana, 2020

920LV
Oct.29-Nov.2
920LV
Bullock
46%
Bullock
46%

Bullock

46%

Daines

50%
50%
Daines  Daines+4
886V
Oct.26-27
886V
Bullock
48%
Bullock
48%

Bullock

48%

Daines

47%
47%
Daines  Bullock+1
546LV
Oct.19-24
546LV
Bullock
48%
Bullock
48%

Bullock

48%

Daines

47%
47%
Daines  Bullock+1
758LV
Oct.18-20
758LV
Bullock
46%
Bullock
46%

Bullock

46%

Daines

49%
49%
Daines  Daines+3
500LV
Oct.15-20
500LV
Bullock
47%
Bullock
47%

Bullock

47%

Daines

48%
48%
Daines  Daines+1
800LV
Oct.15-18
800LV
Bullock
47%
Bullock
47%

Bullock

47%

Daines

49%
49%
Daines  Daines+2
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Candidate is an incumbent

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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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