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Who’s ahead in the North Carolina Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, North Carolina, 2020, General election

Oct. 27-Nov. 2
619LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 2
619LV
Swayable
 Cunningham
53%
 Cunningham
53%

Cunningham

53%

Tillis

47%
47%
Tillis  Cunningham+6
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
473LV
Oct. 29-Nov. 1
473LV
Change Research
 Cunningham
50%
 Cunningham
50%

Cunningham

50%

Tillis

46%
46%
Tillis  Cunningham+4
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
707LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
707LV
Ipsos
 Cunningham
48%
 Cunningham
48%

Cunningham

48%

Tillis

46%
46%
Tillis  Cunningham+2
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
908LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 1
908LV
Data for Progress
 Cunningham
51%
 Cunningham
51%

Cunningham

51%

Tillis

46%

Bray

2%

Hayes

1%
46%
 TillisCunningham+5
Oct. 30-31
676LV
Oct. 30-31
676LV
Frederick Polls
 Cunningham
50%
 Cunningham
50%

Cunningham

50%

Tillis

46%

Bray

3%

Hayes

2%
46%
 TillisCunningham+4
Oct. 29-31
855LV
Oct. 29-31
855LV
Emerson College
 Cunningham
50%
 Cunningham
50%

Cunningham

50%

Tillis

47%
47%
Tillis  Cunningham+3
Oct. 22-31
1,982LV
Oct. 22-31
1,982LV
Morning Consult
 Cunningham
47%
 Cunningham
47%

Cunningham

47%

Tillis

43%
43%
Tillis  Cunningham+5
Oct. 23-30
932RV
Oct. 23-30
932RV
CNN/SSRS
 Cunningham
45%
 Cunningham
45%

Cunningham

45%

Tillis

43%

Bray

3%

Hayes

3%
43%
 TillisCunningham+2
Oct. 23-30
901LV
Oct. 23-30
901LV
CNN/SSRS
 Cunningham
47%
 Cunningham
47%

Cunningham

47%

Tillis

44%

Bray

2%

Hayes

2%
44%
 TillisCunningham+3
Oct. 28-29
800LV
Oct. 28-29
800LV
Rasmussen Reports
 Cunningham
47%
 Cunningham
47%

Cunningham

47%

Tillis

44%
44%
Tillis  Cunningham+3
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Candidate is an incumbent

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