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Who’s ahead in the Alaska Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022, General election

Oct. 19-22
1,276LV
Oct. 19-22
1,276LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
56%
 Murkowski
56%

Murkowski

56%

Tshibaka

45%
45%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+11
Oct. 19-22
1,276LV
Oct. 19-22
1,276LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
42%
 Murkowski
42%

Murkowski

42%

Tshibaka

41%

Chesbro

17%
41%
 TshibakaMurkowski+1
Oct. 19-22
1,276LV
Oct. 19-22
1,276LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
41%
 Murkowski
41%

Murkowski

41%

Tshibaka

39%

Chesbro

16%

Kelley

4%
39%
 TshibakaMurkowski+2
Sept. 25-27
1,282LV
Sept. 25-27
1,282LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
57%
 Murkowski
57%

Murkowski

57%

Tshibaka

43%
43%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+13
Sept. 25-27
1,282LV
Sept. 25-27
1,282LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
42%
 Murkowski
42%

Murkowski

42%

Tshibaka

41%

Chesbro

17%
41%
 TshibakaMurkowski+2
Sept. 25-27
1,282LV
Sept. 25-27
1,282LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
41%
 Murkowski
41%

Murkowski

41%

Tshibaka

39%

Chesbro

16%

Kelley

4%
39%
 TshibakaMurkowski+2
Sept. 6-11
500LV
Sept. 6-11
500LV
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
 Tshibaka
50%
 Tshibaka
50%

Tshibaka

50%

Murkowski

50%
50%
Murkowski  Even
Sept. 6-11
500LV
Sept. 6-11
500LV
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
 Tshibaka
47%
 Tshibaka
47%

Tshibaka

47%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%
38%
 MurkowskiTshibaka+9
Sept. 6-11
500LV
Sept. 6-11
500LV
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research
 Tshibaka
46%
 Tshibaka
46%

Tshibaka

46%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%

Kelley

2%
38%
 MurkowskiTshibaka+8
July 2-5
1,201LV
July 2-5
1,201LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
52%
 Murkowski
52%

Murkowski

52%

Tshibaka

48%
48%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+4
July 2-5
1,201LV
July 2-5
1,201LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Tshibaka
45%
 Tshibaka
45%

Tshibaka

45%

Murkowski

36%

Chesbro

20%
36%
 MurkowskiTshibaka+9
July 2-5
1,201LV
July 2-5
1,201LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Tshibaka
43%
 Tshibaka
43%

Tshibaka

43%

Murkowski

35%

Chesbro

17%

Darden

5%
35%
 MurkowskiTshibaka+7
April 16-21
1,208LV
April 16-21
1,208LV
Alaska Survey Research
 Murkowski
55%
 Murkowski
55%

Murkowski

55%

Tshibaka

45%
45%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+10
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