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Who’s ahead in the Missouri Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

June 1, 2022July 1Aug. 1Sept. 1Oct. 1Nov. 130405060%Schmitt 53.1%Busch Valentine 41.9%Election DayNov. 8, 2022Nov. 8, 2022 leaderNov. 8, 2022 leaderSchmittSchmitt+11.2

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95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

SAMPLE TYPES:

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

DatesSamplePollsterResultNet result
Dates
Sample
PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Missouri, 2022, General election
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Nov. 4-7, 2022
746LV
Nov. 4-7, 2022
746LV
Busch Valentine
40%
Busch Valentine
40%

Busch Valentine

40%

Schmitt

55%
55%
Schmitt  Schmitt+15
Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2022
1,079LV
Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2022
1,079LV
Busch Valentine
42%
Busch Valentine
42%

Busch Valentine

42%

Schmitt

53%

Dine

2%
53%
SchmittSchmitt+11
Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2022
791LV
Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2022
791LV
Busch Valentine
41%
Busch Valentine
41%

Busch Valentine

41%

Schmitt

50%
50%
Schmitt  Schmitt+9
Oct. 26-28, 2022
1,000LV
Oct. 26-28, 2022
1,000LV
Busch Valentine
40%
Busch Valentine
40%

Busch Valentine

40%

Schmitt

54%

Dine

3%

Venable

1%
54%
SchmittSchmitt+14
Oct. 24-25, 2022
1,011LV
Oct. 24-25, 2022
1,011LV
Busch Valentine
42%
Busch Valentine
42%

Busch Valentine

42%

Schmitt

51%

Dine

2%

Venable

1%
51%
SchmittSchmitt+9
Sept. 23-27, 2022
1,160LV
Sept. 23-27, 2022
1,160LV
Busch Valentine
38%
Busch Valentine
38%

Busch Valentine

38%

Schmitt

49%
49%
Schmitt  Schmitt+11

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Candidate is an incumbent

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Republican-funded

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