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Who’s ahead in the Virginia Senate general election?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Read the full methodology here.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Virginia, 2024, General election
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

Nov. 1-4
2,202LV
Nov. 1-4
2,202LV
Kaine
53%
Kaine
53%

Kaine

53%

Cao

44%
44%
Cao  Kaine+9
Nov. 2-3
450LV
Nov. 2-3
450LV
Kaine
53%
Kaine
53%

Kaine

53%

Cao

41%
41%
Cao  Kaine+12
Oct. 28-30
520LV
Oct. 28-30
520LV
Kaine
46%
Kaine
46%

Kaine

46%

Cao

45%
45%
Cao  Kaine+2
Oct. 27-29
600LV
Oct. 27-29
600LV
Kaine
52%
Kaine
52%

Kaine

52%

Cao

42%
42%
Cao  Kaine+10
Oct. 25-29
851LV
Oct. 25-29
851LV
Kaine
51%
Kaine
51%

Kaine

51%

Cao

40%
40%
Cao  Kaine+11
Oct. 2-28
400LV
Oct. 2-28
400LV
Kaine
55%
Kaine
55%

Kaine

55%

Cao

45%
45%
Cao  Kaine+9
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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