UPDATED Sep. 23, 2022, at 4:08 PM

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Who’s ahead in the Alaska Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Sept. 10, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
50%
Tshibaka
50%

Tshibaka

50%

Murkowski

50%
50%
Murkowski  Even
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
47%
Tshibaka
47%

Tshibaka

47%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%
38%
MurkowskiTshibaka+9
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
46%
Tshibaka
46%

Tshibaka

46%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%

Kelley

2%
38%
MurkowskiTshibaka+8

July 4, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Murkowski
52%
Murkowski
52%

Murkowski

52%

Tshibaka

48%
48%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+4
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Tshibaka
45%
Tshibaka
45%

Tshibaka

45%

Murkowski

36%

Chesbro

20%
36%
MurkowskiTshibaka+9
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Tshibaka
43%
Tshibaka
43%

Tshibaka

43%

Murkowski

35%

Chesbro

17%

Darden

5%
35%
MurkowskiTshibaka+7

April 20, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

1,208LV
Apr.16-21
1,208LV
Murkowski
55%
Murkowski
55%

Murkowski

55%

Tshibaka

45%
45%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+10

March 15, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

500LV
Mar.14-16
500LV
Tshibaka
51%
Tshibaka
51%

Tshibaka

51%

Murkowski

49%
49%
Murkowski  Tshibaka+2

March 6, 2022

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

400RV
Mar.2-7
400RV
Murkowski
38%
Murkowski
38%

Murkowski

38%

Tshibaka

28%

Gray-Jackson

16%

Thorne

4%
28%
TshibakaMurkowski+10
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