UPDATED Nov. 15, 2021, at 9:45 AM

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Who’s ahead in Alaska?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Oct. 31, 2021

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
Oct 22-27, 2021
969 RV
Oct 22-27, 2021
969RVMurkowski
60%

Murkowski

60%

Tshibaka

40%
40%
TshibakaMurkowski+20
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
Oct 22-27, 2021
969 RV
Oct 22-27, 2021
969RVMurkowski
35%

Murkowski

35%

Tshibaka

23%

Gray-Jackson

22%

Palin

20%
MoreMurkowski+12

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Aug. 1, 2021

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
Jul 11-21, 2021
947 RV
Jul 11-21, 2021
947RVMurkowski
55%

Murkowski

55%

Tshibaka

45%
45%
TshibakaMurkowski+10
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
Jul 11-21, 2021
947 RV
Jul 11-21, 2021
947RVMurkowski
36%

Murkowski

36%

Tshibaka

27%

Gray-Jackson

19%

Miller

18%
MoreMurkowski+9

June 7, 2021

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
May 22-25, 2021
1,023 LV
May 22-25, 2021
1,023LVGross
46%

Gross

46%

Tshibaka

54%
54%
TshibakaTshibaka+8
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
May 22-25, 2021
1,023 LV
May 22-25, 2021
1,023LVGross
25%

Gross

25%

Tshibaka

39%

Murkowski

19%

Howe

4%
MoreTshibaka+14

Oct. 28, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
Oct 26-28, 2020
770 LV
Oct 26-28, 2020
770LVGross
45%

Gross

45%

Sullivan

48%
48%
SullivanSullivan+3

Oct. 21, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Alaska Alaska
Oct 16-19, 2020
1,076 LV
Oct 16-19, 2020
1,076LVGross
44%

Gross

44%

Sullivan

47%

Howe

3%
MoreSullivan+3
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