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Who’s ahead in the Arizona Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Nov. 6, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,094LV
Nov.5-7
1,094LV
Kelly
47%
Kelly
47%

Kelly

47%

Masters

48%

Victor

1%
48%
MastersMasters+2

Nov. 5, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Nov.4-6
450LV
Kelly
51%
Kelly
51%

Kelly

51%

Masters

47%

Victor

2%
47%
MastersKelly+4
550LV
Nov.4-6
550LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

Masters

47%

Victor

2%
47%
MastersKelly+2
560LV
Nov.2-6
560LV
Kelly
50%
Kelly
50%

Kelly

50%

Masters

47%

Victor

2%
47%
MastersKelly+3
809RV
Nov.2-6
809RV
Kelly
46%
Kelly
46%

Kelly

46%

Masters

43%

Victor

5%
43%
MastersKelly+3
1,359LV
Nov.2-6
1,359LV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Masters

50%

Victor

2%
50%
MastersMasters+1

Nov. 2, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

501LV
Nov.2-3
501LV
Kelly
47%
Kelly
47%

Kelly

47%

Masters

46%
46%
Masters  Kelly+1

Nov. 1, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

550LV
Nov.2
550LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

Masters

48%

Victor

2%
48%
MastersEven
1,075LV
Nov.1-2
1,075LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

Masters

47%

Victor

2%
47%
MastersKelly+1
500LV
Nov.1-2
500LV
Kelly
46%
Kelly
46%

Kelly

46%

Masters

45%
45%
Masters  Kelly+1
1,157RV
Oct.31-Nov.2
1,157RV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Masters

45%
45%
Masters  Kelly+4
814RV
Oct.30-Nov.2
814RV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Masters

48%
48%
Masters  Kelly+1
852LV
Oct.29-Nov.2
852LV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Masters

49%
49%
Masters  Even

Oct. 31, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

1,000LV
Oct.30-Nov.1
1,000LV
Kelly
48%
Kelly
48%

Kelly

48%

Masters

48%

Victor

3%
48%
MastersEven
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

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