See who's ahead in our 2020 national polling averages 📈

UPDATED Aug. 3, 2020, at 6:38 PM

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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added July 30, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jul 19-23, 2020
858 LV
Jul 19-23, 2020
858LVKelly
53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

35%
35%
McSallyKelly+18

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

July 29, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jul 24-26, 2020
365 LV
Jul 24-26, 2020
365LVKelly
47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+2

July 28, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jul 17-26, 2020
908 LV
Jul 17-26, 2020
908LVKelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

36%
36%
McSallyKelly+16

July 26, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jul 18-24, 2020
873 RV
Jul 18-24, 2020
873RVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

43%
43%
McSallyKelly+7
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jul 14-22, 2020
826 RV
Jul 14-22, 2020
826RVKelly
53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

41%
41%
McSallyKelly+12

July 24, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Jul 21-22, 2020
816 V
Jul 21-22, 2020
816VKelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

42%
42%
McSallyKelly+9
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