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Who’s ahead in the Arizona senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Polls ending Jan. 23, 2022

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022

1,469LV
Jan.21-24
1,469LV
Kelly
49%
Kelly
49%

Kelly

49%

Brnovich

47%
47%
Brnovich  Kelly+2
1,469LV
Jan.21-24
1,469LV
Kelly
50%
Kelly
50%

Kelly

50%

Ducey

47%
47%
Ducey  Kelly+3

Sept. 11, 2021

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022

882RV
Sep.7-12
882RV
Kelly
44%
Kelly
44%

Kelly

44%

Masters

35%
35%
Masters  Kelly+9
882RV
Sep.7-12
882RV
Kelly
43%
Kelly
43%

Kelly

43%

Lamon

36%
36%
Lamon  Kelly+7
882RV
Sep.7-12
882RV
Kelly
43%
Kelly
43%

Kelly

43%

Brnovich

39%
39%
Brnovich  Kelly+4
882RV
Sep.7-12
882RV
Kelly
44%
Kelly
44%

Kelly

44%

McGuire

37%
37%
McGuire  Kelly+7

May 4, 2021

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2022

935RV
May 3-5
935RV
Kelly
46%
Kelly
46%

Kelly

46%

Brnovich

36%
36%
Brnovich  Kelly+10
935RV
May 3-5
935RV
Kelly
44%
Kelly
44%

Kelly

44%

McGuire

35%
35%
McGuire  Kelly+9
935RV
May 3-5
935RV
Kelly
47%
Kelly
47%

Kelly

47%

Biggs

36%
36%
Biggs  Kelly+11
935RV
May 3-5
935RV
Kelly
47%
Kelly
47%

Kelly

47%

Ward

36%
36%
Ward  Kelly+11
935RV
May 3-5
935RV
Kelly
46%
Kelly
46%

Kelly

46%

Lake

35%
35%
Lake  Kelly+11
935RV
May 3-5
935RV
Kelly
43%
Kelly
43%

Kelly

43%

McCain

29%
29%
McCain  Kelly+14
935RV
May 3-5
935RV
Kelly
45%
Kelly
45%

Kelly

45%

Yee

35%
35%
Yee  Kelly+10

Nov. 1, 2020

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2020

610LV
Oct.27-Nov.2
610LV
Kelly
53%
Kelly
53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

44%
44%
McSally  Kelly+9

Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2020

988RV
Oct.29-Nov.1
988RV
Kelly
52%
Kelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

45%
45%
McSally  Kelly+7
717LV
Oct.29-Nov.1
717LV
Kelly
52%
Kelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

46%
46%
McSally  Kelly+6
409LV
Oct.29-Nov.1
409LV
Kelly
51%
Kelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

47%
47%
McSally  Kelly+4
333LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
333LV
Kelly
55%
Kelly
55%

Kelly

55%

McSally

45%
45%
McSally  Kelly+10
1,195LV
Oct.27-Nov.1
1,195LV
Kelly
54%
Kelly
54%

Kelly

54%

McSally

46%
46%
McSally  Kelly+8
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