See who's ahead in our 2020 national polling averages 📈

UPDATED Oct. 27, 2020, at 7:07 PM

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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 22-25, 2020
716 LV
Oct 22-25, 2020
716LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+5

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Oct. 23, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 19-22, 2020
500 LV
Oct 19-22, 2020
500LVKelly
47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

50%
50%
McSallyMcSally+3
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 3-5, 2020
800 LV
Oct 3-5, 2020
800LVKelly
47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

49%
49%
McSallyMcSally+1
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Aug 29-31, 2020
800 LV
Aug 29-31, 2020
800LVKelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

48%
48%
McSallyKelly+1

Oct. 22, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 11-20, 2020
1,066 LV
Oct 11-20, 2020
1,066LVKelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+4

Oct. 21, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 14-21, 2020
658 LV
Oct 14-21, 2020
658LVKelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

43%
43%
McSallyKelly+8
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 18-19, 2020
800 LV
Oct 18-19, 2020
800LVKelly
46%

Kelly

46%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+2
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 14-19, 2020
800 LV
Oct 14-19, 2020
800LVKelly
46%

Kelly

46%

McSally

39%
39%
McSallyKelly+7

Oct. 20, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 16-19, 2020
232 LV
Oct 16-19, 2020
232LVKelly
54%

Kelly

54%

McSally

43%
43%
McSallyKelly+11
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 16-18, 2020
550 LV
Oct 16-18, 2020
550LVKelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

42%
42%
McSallyKelly+6
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