UPDATED Apr. 16, 2021, at 3:54 PM

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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Nov. 10, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 9-10, 2018
Oct 9-10, 2018
Sinema
43%

Sinema

43%

McSally

43%
43%
McSallyEven

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 2, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 27-Nov 2, 2020
610 LV
Oct 27-Nov 2, 2020
610LVKelly
53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+9
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
988 RV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
988RVKelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+7
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
717 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
717LVKelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

46%
46%
McSallyKelly+6
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
409 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
409LVKelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

47%
47%
McSallyKelly+4
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
333 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
333LVKelly
55%

Kelly

55%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+10
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 22-31, 2020
1,059 LV
Oct 22-31, 2020
1,059LVKelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+4
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 28-30, 2020
550 LV
Oct 28-30, 2020
550LVKelly
47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

46%
46%
McSallyKelly+1

Nov. 1, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
1,195 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
1,195LVKelly
54%

Kelly

54%

McSally

46%
46%
McSallyKelly+8
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 29-31, 2020
732 LV
Oct 29-31, 2020
732LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

48%
48%
McSallyKelly+3
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 26-30, 2020
1,252 LV
Oct 26-30, 2020
1,252LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

43%
43%
McSallyKelly+7

Oct. 31, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 23-30, 2020
892 RV
Oct 23-30, 2020
892RVKelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+6
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 23-30, 2020
865 LV
Oct 23-30, 2020
865LVKelly
52%

Kelly

52%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+7
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 15-24, 2020
700 LV
Oct 15-24, 2020
700LVKelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

47%
47%
McSallyKelly+4

Oct. 30, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 23-26, 2020
286 LV
Oct 23-26, 2020
286LVKelly
56%

Kelly

56%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+12
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