See who's ahead in our 2020 national polling averages 📈

UPDATED Oct. 28, 2020, at 1:08 PM

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Who’s ahead in Arizona?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

 

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 17-25, 2020
725 RV
Oct 17-25, 2020
725RVKelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

39%
39%
McSallyKelly+12

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

 

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 22-25, 2020
716 LV
Oct 22-25, 2020
716LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+5
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 21-24, 2020
729 LV
Oct 21-24, 2020
729LVKelly
53%

Kelly

53%

McSally

46%
46%
McSallyKelly+7
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 1-3, 2020
604 LV
Oct 1-3, 2020
604LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+5
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Sep 10-13, 2020
679 LV
Sep 10-13, 2020
679LVKelly
50%

Kelly

50%

McSally

45%
45%
McSallyKelly+5

Oct. 23, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 19-22, 2020
500 LV
Oct 19-22, 2020
500LVKelly
47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

50%
50%
McSallyMcSally+3
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 3-5, 2020
800 LV
Oct 3-5, 2020
800LVKelly
47%

Kelly

47%

McSally

49%
49%
McSallyMcSally+1
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Aug 29-31, 2020
800 LV
Aug 29-31, 2020
800LVKelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

48%
48%
McSallyKelly+1

Oct. 22, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 11-20, 2020
1,066 LV
Oct 11-20, 2020
1,066LVKelly
48%

Kelly

48%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+4

Oct. 21, 2020

U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 14-21, 2020
658 LV
Oct 14-21, 2020
658LVKelly
51%

Kelly

51%

McSally

43%
43%
McSallyKelly+8
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 18-19, 2020
800 LV
Oct 18-19, 2020
800LVKelly
46%

Kelly

46%

McSally

44%
44%
McSallyKelly+2
U.S. Senate
Ariz.Ariz.
Oct 14-19, 2020
800 LV
Oct 14-19, 2020
800LVKelly
46%

Kelly

46%

McSally

39%
39%
McSallyKelly+7
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